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Stock Opinions by Jesse Gamble

COMMENT

Canadian stocks are trading at a major discount to American ones, according to PE. A lot of Canadian businesses mostly operate in the US, listed or headquartered here, but earn most of their revenue in the US. Potential US tariff impact on Canadian stocks is a case-by-case basis. He looks for in Canadian stocks those in the knowledge industries. Canada has a fine educational system and we have technology hubs, such as Kitchener-Waterloo. We have a lot of innovation and high-end knowledge in Canada that gets us away from tariffs and inflation. He owns larger- and smaller-cap names, including new disruptors. We're in the early innings of small caps.

Unknown
DON'T BUY

He was in on the IPO a few years ago. Wood-burning stoves is a large business for them, plus agriculture and some industrial. They acquire and integrate small businesses in order to lead the market. It pays a high dividend. During Covid, business in some parts spiked, but after Covid, their YOY comparables looked like an overall fall-off. The stock hasn't done well since. He sold most of his shares before that downturn. The CEO plans to aggressively buy more companies, but it hasn't happened yet. The dividend is safe, but look elsewhere.

0
DON'T BUY

He never owned this, never liking their growth-at-any-cost strategy and sacrificing margins. POS is a very competitive market with little difference between companies.

Technology
STRONG BUY
VitalHub Corp.

A large position for him. They bring tech to the healthcare industry, like software. They had a previous business that they grew, then sold to private equity and finished their non-competes, and now they're doing that again with a new product that is starting to produce cash. Margins have risen to 24%, and they target 40%. It's becoming a cash engine that they're using to reinvest in products. They have a ton of cash as they grow 10-15% organically.

Healthcare
DON'T BUY

Never owned this. They carry way too much debt.

Healthcare
BUY
Kneat.com Inc

They bring validation software to biopharma, and they do it well. The chart is strong. He's been adding shares. Before, they were losing as they invested in R&D, but now they're becoming profitable. He expects margins to expand quickly in coming years. When they win a client, it takes time to roll out that client. Growth is safe.

Technology
BUY
Propel Holdings

A large holding of his. A US acquisition will be accretive and will diversify their geography. 2026 revenues are +40 and earnings +70, as it trades at 10-11x. Lots of growth ahead. 

Financial Services
DON'T BUY

Very small, trying to be the Paladin Labs of veterinarian services. They lack the compounding cash flow engine to reinvest. They just bought a Winnipeg company and took on too much debt which limits growth.

Consumer Products
BUY

The chart shows a massive spike up, massive drop, and now recovery in the past year.  They likely paid too much for a company in 2022 and were trading at a high PE. He had added shares in 2023-4 after a new CEO started bundling products, focus on margins and integrated companies. Has been doing a good job. He expects them to return to growth this year at 10% organically and 18% EBITDA margins. Looks cheap, half the PE of peers.

Telecommunications
DON'T BUY

He sold it after rising 300% for him. Problem now are their capacity constraints. They're growing capacity in Guelph and New Mexico, but you're overpaying on limited growth. He doesn't see the growth, considering their PE.

electrical / electronic
DON'T BUY
Shopify Inc.

Never owned it. After it went public, it was growing revenue at 80%, but was unprofitable. He can't value a company losing money. But SHOP Is shifting: revenue growth is falling as margins rise. It trades at 103X PE, which is not good considering their growth rate.

0
WAIT

Is currently reorganizing, spinning off Well Star (like Vitalhub) and that price is too high. WELL may also spin off more businesses. What will the balance sheet look like? He's on the sidelines.

Healthcare
DON'T BUY
Enghouse Systems

He owned it when they were a typical Canadian compounder, reinvesting cash into tuck-ins, but it became lumpy. That's when he sold. They spiked during Covid, because they had a telehealth business, so YOY comps later didn't look good. Also, how does AI impact their large call centre business?

computer software / processing
DON'T BUY
Avante Logixx Inc

It's had some CEOs over the years. Doesn't know if he fully trusts the management style going forward in light of past mistakes. Are better companies in security. See Top Picks.

0
DON'T BUY
BlackBerry

They provide back-end software in hundreds of millions of cars, plus they have a strong cybersecurity business. They aren't growing that quickly. Trading at 30x PE. Still not super cheap.

electrical / electronic
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