Gerard FergusonShopify Inc.SHOP.TOBUY ON WEAKNESSFeb 18, 2020

Never a go-to tech name for him. Highly tied to small- and mid-market, more vulnerable to economic swings. Bit expensive at 65x forward PE, 30% growth. PEG is still 2+. 200-day MA sideways, slightly lower. For tech, look south of the border.

Not inexpensive. Valuation reflects growth potential; hiccups can send the stock lower. Good candidate if you want to participate in e-commerce buildout.

Disclaimer:  Christine doesn't own it. He colleague John O'Connell does.

It is interesting if it executes well. It is a tactical buy but not for the long term. There is a lot going on in this space. A Meta agent exists with its goal to create an AI tool kit to set up your own business.

Ad revenues are being hurt with subscribers pulling back. Cutting marketing and staff. Will the economy slow, thereby reducing customers shopping online? Trades ~75x forward PE. It's a domino effect of whether it can keep margins up, which keeps cashflow up, which makes earnings rise. If not, there will be hiccups in a stock priced for perfection.

Not trading really well. Came up to old highs and failed. Earnings would have to be really good for stock to break out. Analyst targets for 1 year out are at the old highs. Be very cautious here ahead of earnings.

Performed well over 3 years, though only average over 5, and year to date up 6%. Is a great global commerce company. Analysts are mixed on it. It's too volatile for her.

He likes Canadian tech software. SHOP is more volatile than its peers. If SHOP breaks the current $250 that could be a good sign, but you want to see it up there for over a week. Typically, it rises, pulls back a little, then takes off.

Their earnings numbers were fantastic and they are in a sector that the market is rewarding. Also it falls into the rotation from hardware to software. Long term it is building out its business on the service and finance sides.

Secular winner. Omnichannel merchandising in a box, with an actively growing POS business. Merchant solutions (~80% of sales) include add-ons to monthly subscriptions. Great second quarter, sales up in 30% range and earnings ~20%. Guidance calls for more of the same.

Increasingly demonstrating that AI is not a disruptor, but a tool. Lots of FCF, buying back lots of shares. In middle innings of the global e-commerce story. Expensive (as always), ~70x PE. Use the charts to buy in.

Incredible growth ahead. He owns a bit. Issue is valuation of 100x PE. Growing nicely. Probably 5-10 years away from being a company you'd buy just on financials. Buy a bit. If it drops buy some more, and so on. Right now the market's paying for growth, but at some point it may not.

Volatile and frustrating to trade the past year. He's been in and out of it. But there's been an uptrend since May. Relative strength is improving, but you have to live with the swings.

There is lots of volatility with this stock. It has positioned itself well in the last while. It has lots of free cash flow with no need to spend a lot of money on AI. It can use AI for its own benefit, helping and setting up business clients. Also to cut costs. Buy on a pullback.

Seems not to have taken its eye off the ball after the post-pandemic swoon. Hasn't suffered the fate of so many other Canadian tech stories. Good way to participate in AI. Valuation's too high to include in his funds.

Hit earlier in the year on the SaaSpocalypse, which was misguided to some degree. Won't get replaced, very agentic. About 14% of total US e-commerce, major player. Always rich, but now at the low end. Spending hasn't increased, yet cashflow is growing. META Muse announcement has lifted stock recently.

Interesting, but risky. If you look at the AI value chain, the hardware and infrastructure layers are where a lot of the value has been accruing. Has shown innovation. Have to see how spending translates into growth. If you own it, hold.