Starbucks (SBUX)

Debt levels are very high at the moment (~$15 billion). Capital allocation has not been very strong. Too many new CEO's lately. Would not recommend investing at this time. Better options for investors out there. 

US store traffic is weakening while it's gotten more competitive in China, so weak there. They just got the Chipotle CEO, so shares just popped chase it, but will wait.

Would take a profit on the trade. Short-term, a new CEO doesn't change the fundamental story, maybe long-term. The problems are a saturated market and the consumer is watching their pennies. 

It reported a not-as-bad-as expected quarter yesterday. To adjust to the poorer American consumer, it's now offering members discounts, but not to non-members. SBUX must do more to entice consumers.

It could bounce in this market. Their problem is much weaker same-stores sales in China, due to cheaper domestic chains (for the first time in China). Wait and see. If you love going to Starbucks, you know this better than an analyst, so yeah, buy it.

This has been weak, partially due to weak sales in China, but last week Elliott Management, an activist investor, came in. They inspire him to buy. When Elliott fixes SBUX shares will top $90-100.

It's no longer great to do business in China, where SBUX has a lot of operations. Shares are -24% YTD.

Current share price weak - company in the penalty box. China market not helping generate sales. Expecting Howard Schultz to come back and fix the business. Earnings are also expected to rise. 

Sold, based on disappointing recent earnings report. Lowered guidance for the full year, which prompts him to get out of the name and ask questions later. 4% decline in global same-store sales, 11% drop in China. Missed expectations. Channel of lower highs and lower lows since mid-2023, technically not great. Trading below 200-day MA, which itself is moving lower.

Sees 12% growth rate going forward, but now they have to fix what's happening in China. Geopolitical issues are affecting consumers globally. Brand continues to be iconic long term. He can see a point when he'd get back in, but not today.

Stock too cheap. However, have to been realistic about turnaround time. Will take time. 

Absolutely disappointing. Economic recovery in China is affecting shares, plus global geopolitical issues. Broken below some serious support levels. Still strong global brand recognition, international footprint. Continues to transform digital aspects.

For the time being, might be a tough go before they can turn it around. He still holds, but it's broken a couple of quant measures: stop losses, plus earnings below his threshold of negative surprise. After the show, he's going back to the office to take a really close look at it.

It reports Tuesday. Has China gotten better? How's their labour situation? Has the Gaza boycott impacted their numbers (like it did last night)? He's nervous.

Current share price is a good entry point. New CEO is making good changes. Increasing EPS, top line revenue and store sales growth. Guidance is trending lower, which makes good time to buy. China a concern - but expecting a recovery. $85 share price a great place to buy - expecting $100 share price going forward. 

Not a fan of capital structure. Grown debt significantly from $1.5B to 13B. Negative net worth. High payout ratio. Strong buyback program. Poster child for bad capital allocation. Not the way to grow into quality stats.

 SBUX is a highly dominant consumer brand and is now trading at 20.5x times' Forward P/E (historical averages range from 20.7x to 32x). In the last few years, revenue growth was solid at low double-digits, but the share price has been under pressure recently due to the exposure to China’s market, which has experienced a slowdown in consumer spending. The balance sheet is slightly leveraged with $21.1B in net debt and net debt/EBIT is around 2.1x which is still under control. Due to capital investment to expand store count, SBUX is expected to grow its EPS around 15% this year, which is quite healthy. The company has grown its dividend consistently by around 10% per annum in the last five years. We think SBUX is quite cheap now and would be comfortable buying here. 
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