RioCan Real Estate InvestmentREI.UN.TOSELLApr 21, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 10, 2026. Market Open.
She doesn't own REITs. Valuations were too high, and there was better growth elsewhere, like pipelines. REITs do pay dividends and REI is not bad. It's flat over 5 years, but high occupancy rates, a 5% dividend and 60% payout ratio, and a high renewal rates by tenants. Will do more research first, though. REITs are a rare place to pay 5% dividends with little risk.
Open air, grocery-centred. Very good centres and management. Some investments outside that core business in multi-family (where rental rates are contracting) and enclosed malls (HBC investment is an overhang). Still, distribution quite safe. Growth picture is quite bright, as they have levers to pull.
Cash flow per unit of 49c beat estimates of 45c; leasing spreads improved and same property net operating income rose. But it did take a $209M writedown on Hudson Bay and trimmed its guidance because of it (by 4c per unit). This hit offset benefits from its residential sector. The stock is down less than 1% which we would not consider abnormal.
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We think REI will be able to manage HBC's exit. The valuation is quite low at 9X cash flow, and, all things considered, the units have held up relatively well, down 6% YTD and up 2% in 52 weeks. The distribution was raised in February and payout is a decent 60%. We would not expect much from the sector, considering economic conditions, and minimal growth is expected (consensus). Still, this seems reflected in the valuation, and any good news would likely be quite positive to the stock. We would consider it 'OK', for income, overall. We are just not so sure this is a 'good' time to buy. 'Accumulate' slowly might be a better strategy.
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Still a REIT giant. Leads in the retail-focused, mixed-property use. Definitely impacted by The Bay situation. Retail weakness over next 6-12 months could be an issue.
Saw 96% retail occupancy in Q4, and 1.5% rental growth. Pressure from e-commerce. Issued debt in January to bolster balance sheet, debt is still manageable. Rate cuts could continue to spark leasing demand. Yield is 6%, cash machine for income lovers. Still reliable.
Short term, he's constructive, likely more upside, a yield beneficiary. Medium term, might be one of the largest REITs in Canada, but one one of the smaller investors compared to pension plans, for example. Buying and developing assets is complex, expensive, and fraught with uncertainty. Fragile profile, despite good yield and recent rally.
There is such a hunt for yield. The cash flow from these companies is paid out to shareholders in a juicy fashion. They are very interest sensitive. He would not rule out an interest rate cut in Canada after this year and that would not bode badly for REITs. For this one you have to ask if you are there for yield or appreciation. This is a mature company that all investors are aware of. He does not see significant upside. There are other places you could get this yield.