Pembina Pipeline CorpPPL.TOBUYDec 17, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 30, 2026. Market Open.
Both benefit from AI centre demand. Pembina is building a 1.8 gigawatt natural gas plant in Alberta. Half of ALA's business is in the US, regulated utilities, in Virginia--the world capital of data centre traffic. ALA also has activity in Western Canada. ALA's growth rate is higher than Pembina. ALA gets the slight edge.
APO has pretty smart people, and they're seeing an opportunity here. Purchase was from KKR, so nothing much changes.
As for PPL itself, trading a bit expensive with growth catalysts of 5-7%. Nice, visible project backlog. Nice dividend. Wouldn't add here, but you'll do OK if you own it.
Still thinks KEY is the better buy.
PPL is more pure-play pipeline infrastructure. Better dividend yield. Contracted cashflow gives you earnings and revenue visibility. This would be his preference.
ALA gives you a mix of energy infrastructure (~45%) with regulated utilities (~55%). Utility component gives more stability, but lower dividend. He's not a huge fan of utilities unless they're tied to AI infrastructure buildout.
Weighting is always a difficult thing. When you have a high-weight position and it works, it's great. Not so much when it doesn't work. Tough for him to comment without knowing an investor's particular situation, but this caller seems to know a lot about the company. That knowledge and insight help mitigate the risk when having a concentrated position. You have to know your stock well, otherwise you get hit by something.
Likes the name, doesn't own (but has in past). His preference in the space is ENB. But when you compare the two, PPL has a really strong growth profile and that's a really big positive. As for the valuation, it's quite reasonable. As is the payout ratio, so not a lot of dividend risk. Tends to trade at a bit of a discount relative to ENB because of its collection of midstream assets (not everything has the same contracted profile as an oil or gas pipeline).
Trades south of 10x cashflow. Well-protected dividend. Good growth. No problem owning this one at all.