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Pembina Pipeline CorpPPL.TOBUYDec 17, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 09, 2026. Market Open.
Exposure to the 4 horsemen of Western Canadian growth: gas, LNG, condensate, and crude. Partnership with META. Heartland Extraction Plant should see more volumes. Leverage to the pipeline going west out of Alberta. Exposure to Cedar LNG facility under construction.
Low double-digit internal growth, plus dividend yield, gives you ~15% annual compound return. Yield is 4.65%.
They will benefit from the long-term investments that Canadian government is making in Western Canada, like growing oil and natural gas production (LNG Canada). They have a good track record of completing projects on time and on budget. Always a good dividend payer, now at 4.5%. The midstreams are a safe way to play ongoing production in Western Canada.
There are some overhangs on deals with KKR and Apollo but it is well run and has the best growth prospects of similar companies. The coming increase of LNG is good for Pembina as the Canadian infrastructure gets larger. Even at higher prices today it is showing strength.
A name for a good dividend and safety. Pipelines are not quite as good as utilities, because they're perceived as being commodity-sensitive (even though they're really not).
You'll get your dividend, and the safety means you can sleep at night (and that's worth something). You can get diversification via funds and ETFs.
Weighting is always a difficult thing. When you have a high-weight position and it works, it's great. Not so much when it doesn't work. Tough for him to comment without knowing an investor's particular situation, but this caller seems to know a lot about the company. That knowledge and insight help mitigate the risk when having a concentrated position. You have to know your stock well, otherwise you get hit by something.
Likes the name, doesn't own (but has in past). His preference in the space is ENB. But when you compare the two, PPL has a really strong growth profile and that's a really big positive. As for the valuation, it's quite reasonable. As is the payout ratio, so not a lot of dividend risk. Tends to trade at a bit of a discount relative to ENB because of its collection of midstream assets (not everything has the same contracted profile as an oil or gas pipeline).
Trades south of 10x cashflow. Well-protected dividend. Good growth. No problem owning this one at all.