Pembina Pipeline CorpPPL.TOBUYAug 22, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 03, 2026. Market Open.
Both benefit from AI centre demand. Pembina is building a 1.8 gigawatt natural gas plant in Alberta. Half of ALA's business is in the US, regulated utilities, in Virginia--the world capital of data centre traffic. ALA also has activity in Western Canada. ALA's growth rate is higher than Pembina. ALA gets the slight edge.
APO has pretty smart people, and they're seeing an opportunity here. Purchase was from KKR, so nothing much changes.
As for PPL itself, trading a bit expensive with growth catalysts of 5-7%. Nice, visible project backlog. Nice dividend. Wouldn't add here, but you'll do OK if you own it.
Still thinks KEY is the better buy.
PPL is more pure-play pipeline infrastructure. Better dividend yield. Contracted cashflow gives you earnings and revenue visibility. This would be his preference.
ALA gives you a mix of energy infrastructure (~45%) with regulated utilities (~55%). Utility component gives more stability, but lower dividend. He's not a huge fan of utilities unless they're tied to AI infrastructure buildout.
About 70% of the business is take-or-pay -- no volume risk or commodity price risk. Another 20% is on fee-for-service contracts, where there is volume risk but no commodity exposure. Rest has commodity exposure to nat gas and oil.
Over 10 years, has been competitive with the TSX. Compounding total shareholder returns just over 10%. A bit better than its energy infrastructure peers. Beta is about 0.7, low risk. Trading at low end of the range. Yield ~5.4%, and growing at a 5% pace for foreseeable future. Good sightline to high-single or low-double-digit return.