
TSE:PEY
This summary was created by AI, based on 13 opinions in the last 12 months.
Peyto Exploration & Development (PEY) presents a mixed yet generally favorable outlook among analysts. Many experts highlight its strong position in the natural gas sector, emphasizing the company’s potential for growth due to its substantial drilling inventory and strategic acquisitions. While some analysts suggest buying on pullbacks due to its attractive trendline and reasonable price targets, others caution against new investments if oil stocks are already present in one’s portfolio. Additionally, the attractive dividend yield and potential for future increases as debt decreases make PEY a noteworthy option for income-oriented investors. However, concerns over current valuations and market conditions suggest careful consideration is necessary before making any investment decisions.
PEY has a solid balance sheet and a long history of growth. It has seen many cycles already, and was one of the first companies to convert into an income trust way back (which did benefit shareholders). It trades at only 7X earnings and barely 4X cash flow. The dividend is attractive and was more than doubled late last year. It is not guaranteed of course but is well-covered by cash flow. Payout ratio is 21%. We like management and its leverage to gas prices is very high. Some fault it because of its hedge program on prices, but of course this does also reduce risk of price volatility.
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If we stay at the current gas price for the next year, dividend is not sustainable. PEY has a good hedge position, and they're actually getting good gas pricing, so it has a buffer. He owns it in an income fund, making about 18% after selling calls. Not in his main fund, as all he wants to own is Canadian heavy oil.
LNG Canada is bringing a significant export opportunity for all Canadian nat gas companies towards the end of 2025. This will be transformational. He likes all Canadian nat gas producers on a volume basis. His preference is ARX, as it's diversified with undeveloped land. Prefers PEY to BIR; management is stronger, though its dividend will be subject to commodity prices, can grow production long-term.
He thinks natural gas will be the energy of the future. He is not an energy expert. He has gone with Peyto. Consider taking small positions when there are big market down days. But they must be good companies that will survive. 7 out of 10 of these companies may go under. Think of them as call options.
Owns shares in income fund. Dividend is very safe at ~9%. Recent M&A good for business. Getting more interested in natural gas stocks given LNG future in Canada. Strong management team. Great stock for dividend investors.