Petro-Canada (PCA.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)

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BUY

One of the few majors that trades at a discount to its Net Asset Value. Likes their asset mix. Have had some disappointing results over the last 18 months. Production hasn't been as high as he expected. More upside potential vendor is with others.

TOP PICK

This will be a Buy very soon. He has been underweight oils. When oil bottoms and starts to rise, it will be a big player in the market.

DON'T BUY

Over the long term, a lot of the large energy stocks will continue to be good investments. In the short run, they have come a long way in a short period of time. Probably over owned at this time. Would prefer not to be in this sector right now.

BUY

Has always traded at a discount to its peer group. Very reasonable valuation. Growth profile is in the low 20’s, which is very positive. Good long-term hold.

BUY

Has a good increasing production profile. An integrated play so you have both upstream and downstream operations. Extremely well managed. Good price.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 25/06. Down 15%.) Is still dirt cheap on a valuation basis. They disappointed in terms of production and the street is losing patience. Would continue to hold.

BUY

Good integrated company. If you are bullish on energy, a good one to hold. Good long-term investment.

DON'T BUY

Would prefer Husky (HSE-T) or Talisman (TLM-T). Really have to get some details on their foothill project in terms of how much they're going to have to spend. Some of the quarterly reports have been a little bit spotty.

BUY

Market is unfairly discounting it, partially because It’s got some mid-east exposure. The best run of the integrateds. It consistently does better in refining and marketing. Very wide geographical spread of assets. East coast is more productive than expected.

DON'T BUY

Not really growing their production on a per share basis, so nothing exciting there. Also own a lot of gas stations that are not producers, so not a lot of leverage. He is short on this as a hedge against his own holdings.

TOP PICK

Stock recently sold off and looking at their programs for 07, there is a pretty good chance the production is going to be up. Trading at only 10 X earnings and 6 X cash flow.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 21/06. Up 9%.) Model price is over $71, a 51% positive differential. The cheapest one in the TS60.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 25/06. Down 9.3%.) Of all the integrateds around the world, it is still the best value play. Good assets. Management continues to stumble. Outlook is very good.

SELL

Had some production problems on the east coast, which are being resolved. Some of their numbers reported have been a little lethargic. There are more exciting opportunities, such as Talisman (TLM-T) or Husky (HSE-T). He would sell on any decent run-up.

BUY

Has always been discounted but thinks this will change over the next few years. Cheapest, but one of the better oil/gas companies. Production growth is coming up.

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Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)