Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)

COMMENT
The issue of the costs in general is one that dogs the oil and gas industry, especially the oil sands. Just released results that were weakish. Costs were higher than what people expected. The big knock on this company is that they are failing to replace reserves fast enough.
DON'T BUY
Have decided not to sell their 5 oil sands holdings that were previously on the block. These are not been developed at this time. They do have one holding, Fort Hills; they are developing, but expects it will be over budget. Expect the 1st Q results will have some nasty surprises. If so, the stock will drop.
TOP PICK
This is the cheapest stock in the TSX60. Would love to buy it at $44.88. His model price is $67.58, a 47% positive differential.
WAIT
Recently reported quarterly earnings, which where in line. Has not had a very reliable record of meeting analysts’ expectations, so it is trading at a discount. Wait until it has a more consistent reporting record.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 25/06. Down 11.6%.) Very tied in to the price of oil. Still likes it. Continues to be the best value internationally of integrated oils.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 2/06. Down 20.3%.) Trading at 11 X current earnings. Could have cash flow in the area of $9.40. Likes oil/gas companies that have a growing production profile. He is bullish on energy longer term.
BUY
And integrated, which he likes. Looks like very attractive value at this price.
WATCH
Not a favourite. Numbers will be reported shortly. Company is looking for big improvement in terms of production and are looking to deploy their cash flow over the next 3-4 year period.
WEAK BUY
Have had some difficulties with production on the East Coast. Stock has been volatile. If you are patient and buy on the dips, and patient on waiting for it to rise, you will do fine. Feels it is more vulnerable to a downturn than the smaller E&P firms.
DON'T BUY
Primarily crude weighted and he is lukewarm on crude.
BUY
Like most energy stocks, the chart shows a long down trend. The chart looks like we are very close to good support and he would be looking to buy some at this point. Risk/reward is very compelling for energy stocks right now.
TOP PICK
He has a model price of $60.01 giving it had 58% positive differential.
BUY
Has a lot of good things going for it, the least of which is the Blizzard production in the North Sea. Some future production looks very positive. Expect it will trade along with the price of oil and gas.
BUY
A value play in the oil patch. Good growth profile.
TOP PICK
(Due to technical difficulties, comments were not available.)
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