Petro-Canada (PCA.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)

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DON'T BUY

Really a story that is all about oil sands in 2011 and 2012. Not a whole lot of growth expected in production this year and next. 2011 is when you will get the big bump. Cheapest integrated in North America.

HOLD

A good name and will go higher from here. Very inexpensive. For several years, management led the street to believe production would come in greater than it did. Last quarter had very strong earnings in the production side. Still a little bit of a “show me” out there. Will need another quarter or 2 to convince the street.

BUY

Had a very strong 2nd quarter. They have a piece of White Rose and a piece of Buzzard in the North Sea.

BUY

We are coming to a period where money will be flowing into quality equities. This is one of the highest quality.

WATCH

Historically have been slow in managing the assets and fulfilling some of the objectives they set out as a corporation. Last quarter had some fairly decent numbers. Getting closer to a buying point.

HOLD

Has over promised and under delivered for some time. Had a great last quarter. It's clearly getting the message at the top that they need to execute. Cheap on every metric.

BUY

One of his favourite integrateds because they are pretty efficient at refining. The non-North American side of things has been coming through pretty nicely. The offshore East Coast has been kicking in.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

A bit of a “show me” stock over the last few years. Has done well along with the energy sector. Latest quarter showed that it was exceeding analysts’ estimates. As long as you are comfortable with the volatility in energy, this is a reasonable investment here.

TOP PICK

Has lagged its peer group, especially in Western Canada. Has been 3 quarters of good demonstrable results. Dramatic up tick in production since the last quarter. Has a real suite of projects in the hopper that can give expanded activity and profitability.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 21/06 Up 17%.) His model price is $77.00, at 34% positive differential.

PARTIAL BUY

Has been out of favour, but has skyrocketed in the last 3 or 4 months. Wouldn't aggressively buy at this point.

BUY

Has had a nice run, but isn't fully valued yet. Can see it up another 10% over the next year.

HOLD

Good solid investment.

DON'T BUY

Stock has already moved a lot so there is not a lot of growth. Prefers smaller companies that have moved less and that will have a lot more growth.

HOLD

Believes that over the next number of years, it has a number of things that are really going for it. Very significantly growing production profile. Currently benefiting very strongly from high refining margins.

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Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)