Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)

BUY
Selling at about 2.25X Book. His Fair Market Value is really strong. Selling at a much cheaper Price to Book then Imperial oil (IMO-T), which would make it a more conservative and safer purchase. Even trading at a discount to the oil Index in itself. Good balance sheet. Lots of upside.
DON'T BUY
Has a reasonable weight in energy, but basically outside of Canada. Has focused on integrated companies with an international presence. Conventional oil/gas producers in Canada were under performing global companies and with Alberta’s talk on royalty taxation, they have dropped even further.
TOP PICK
He feels there will be some type of a compromise on the Alberta royalty review. They have assets globally, which is an advantage. Beautiful integrated business. Trading at 6X cash flow, which is very reasonable.
TOP PICK
Likes their diversification within the industry. The proposed Alberta royalty changes will affect the conventional oil/gas companies and the impact could be fairly major. Expect this company would be affected by less than 10%. Sees their production growing from 350 million BOE a day to 425 over the next couple of years.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Cheap on an integrated basis. Has lots of production outside of Alberta. Have been making reasonable money on the downstream side. Trading around 10, 11X earnings. Prefers it under $50.
BUY
Above its 200-day moving average. There was a bit of a rally recently and there could be a pullback. Take some positions anyway and if the stock comes back to $54, then get some more. The stock is on the verge of a breakout.
WATCH
Very strong production growth. Global assets as well as some oil sands. Very cheap. Starting to be increasingly viewed as a value trap. Looks cheap, but doesn't go anywhere. Dead money for a quarter but if they meet production quotas, it could be a screaming buy. A “Wait and See” story.
DON'T BUY
Stock had a big move and expect it will consolidate for a while. Also feels oil prices may have peaked in the near term.
WEAK BUY
Oil stocks are cheap relative to price of oil. Could go through $100. Should have ownership in this sector. Long term hold
BUY
A great diversifier with refining assets, international assets. A slow and study company. Likes its stability.
HOLD
Defensive play in energy. Valuation compared to other integrateds is good. If oil prices fall, they won't hurt as much because of integrated operations. Have some good growth projects. May have to come up with more money for their Fort Hills project.
BUY
Diversified oil/gas production company with a big refining/marketing operation. Really well run. Under-performed most of the majors because there will be no takeover because of government rules. Undervalued.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
There are no refineries and they take a long time to build. Also difficult to find locations. You buy these companies on a dip. At $48-$49, it would be a table pounder.
PARTIAL BUY
Growth profile is finally coming through quite well. Cheap on a numerical basis. Feels you will be up to get this below $50.
BUY
Likes that it is integrated which gives it a diversified revenue stream. Has some wonderful assets internationally and Canadian. Their oil sands assets are coming on stream now. Also likes their refineries.
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