Petro-Canada (PCA.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)

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WEAK BUY

The "integrated" oils like Petro, Imperial, or the handful in the US. The group together is beginning to move higher. Not much risk for potential upside. Prefers Imperial oil

BUY

Has been a difficult stock to own until this last quarter. This should be their year. Have had 2 quarters of solid growth. Current production is over 400,000 BOE's a day. Seemed to have Terra Nova operating predictably. Buzzard is on stream.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 3/06. Up 2.6%.) Last quarter was very good. A bit of a “ show me” stock but he would continue to hold.

BUY

Undervalued compared to its peers. Growing its production. Good retailing and refining capacities.

BUY

Had a blowout quarter. Production and refining earnings where strong. Cheap on a net asset value basis.

BUY

Will generally perform with the energy market. He has a bullish outlook on energy over the medium to long-term. Trades at a discount because of limited ownership rules.

STRONG BUY

Has been missing earnings. Last quarter they beat earnings, so they bought. All the other oil companies have been trading high. Petro Canada was the exception. Now they've beat the earnings, and he expects them to beat earnings multiple times.

PAST TOP PICK

Still holding. The cheapest oil in Canada. Year from now $57. Great stock, core holding in their portfolio.

BUY

Have been an over-promise and under-deliver company. The downstream, refinery and marketing, have carried the day. Upstream has been a little disappointing. Dirt-cheap. There will be a day when this thing skyrockets. Not much downside risk.

TOP PICK

Have a fairly good production growth profile, which he feels analysts have overlooked. Expecting a production growth from 345,000 BOE's to well over 400,000 this year.

COMMENT

Large-cap Canadian energy stocks had a consolidation that started a year ago with some of them coming out of it over the last couple of months. If you are looking out over 3-5 years, there's nothing wrong with this company but there are better names available.

DON'T BUY

Had some internal issues dealing with a lot of assets, which they have finally sorted out. Can’t see where the growth comes from 2 or 3 years from now.

COMMENT

If you want to play the integrateds, this is the one he would go with. Prefers Encana (ECA-T), Talisman (TLM-T) and CNQ (CNQ-T).

COMMENT

Have had disappointing operating results in the past couple of years. Incredibly cheap at 4 X cash flow. Can't see any catalyst in the near future that will move this stock. OK for a long-term investor.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Apr 27/06. Down 14.5%.) The price of oil knocked the stock down. Likes its prospects. Still a Buy.

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Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)