Petro-Canada (PCA.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)

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TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 17/07. Up 12.7%.) His model price was substantially above the current price. Got no respect. A balance sheet and valuation story. Model price is $75.39, almost 50% positive differential.

TOP PICK

It's cheap and now is the time to start looking at it because everything has been against this company and they have disappointed for so long, the perception is a very negative but it is starting to turn. Has pretty good production growth. Have some good properties. Signed a 30-year deal with Libya which is a good asset.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 9/07. Up 23.8%.) Still likes. Had a history of under delivering and over promising but this seems to be changing. Still the cheapest of the multi-nationals. Likes their international diversification. Putting a lot of money into their downstream and making it more profitable.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Past Top Pick Dec 27/06. Up 6.9%.) Not as enthused as he was last year. 08 looks more like a “ho hum” kind of year. Took some profits and switched to integrateds, Husky Energy (HSE-T).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Past Top Pick Dec 21/06. Up 6.9%.) Still mispriced. His model price is $78.28. A 53.5% positive differential.

TOP PICK

At a level that is very attractive. Selling at about 2X book making it very cheap compared to most oil patch stocks.

WEAK BUY

Very important to have energy weighting in your portfolio. Good refining downstream business as well as a decent upstream business. Wasn't too crazy about their acquisitions 5 years in Syria and Libya. Prefers Pacific Energy (PFE-T) (PFE.S-T) and Petrobank (PBG-T) where you will make a lot more money over the next 3 years.

WEAK BUY

Disappointed in the past but valuation is probably cheaper at this stage. Have some upside in terms of exploration that they are currently developing.

BUY

A frustrating stock to own because it looks very inexpensive. Likes the integrated nature. Have enormous assets. Not expensive.

TOP PICK

Getting deeper into Libya and are putting up a large portion of the development expenses and will get 12% of the production. Price is compelling. Expect earnings to be around $5.75 this year and next. Cash flow should be around $10.

DON'T BUY

Has gone through a pretty good period with rising production and margins looking a little bit better. Now seem to be going into one of those slow periods. A solid company. If you want to hold it for 10 years you'll probably do okay, but in the next year or so, production will be down.

HOLD

The biggest risk on this is the oil price and the Cdn$. On a longer-term basis, he likes their positioning, refining operations, international diversity and they still have some decent growth.

TOP PICK

(His 3 Top Picks will not give you instant gratification, but are to be held for 1, 2, 3 years.) Affected by the Cdn$ as a lot of their operations are outside of Canada. Also has a lot of natural gas. Montreal refinery has a strike going on. Extremely reasonable valuation. Prospects on a number of their things are extremely promising.

TOP PICK

A nice cheap integrated oil stock so has all bases covered. FMV is about triple the stock price. Reasonably close to good technical support.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 5/07. Up 5.9%.) Down at this price, is getting twitchy again about adding more. Fundamentals are still good. Good defensive growth.

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Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)