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Nexen Inc (NXY.TO)

COMMENT
There is a strong feeling out there that something should be done about this company. When you take out the trading losses, their numbers where bang on. Stock is cheap enough. Expect there will be a push to sell the company or break it up.
PARTIAL BUY
Missed their earnings estimates sold the stock dropped. Little riskier than some of the senior energy stocks because of its international focus. This means market is going to punish it more when it doesn't perform. Very well run company. He would Hold for the long haul and would be tempted to add a little to a position.
TOP PICK
Going to be tough to invest in the last 1.5 years of this cycle. Oil and gold will generally be extremely volatile. 32% ROE. Phenomenal profit growth. Great fundamentals. PE is 11.9X’s.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 8/07. Up 36%.) Had been really cheap. Brought on Buzzard in the North Sea, which has been a real cash cow. 50% of the oil sands play, Long Lake looks like it is finally coming of age.
BUY
Great assets in the North Sea and in North America. Growing production profile.
BUY
Great company. Likes Buzzard, their North Sea property where they will be generating the highest cash margins of any company. Started steaming some of their Long Lake wells and the upgrader will be operating this summer so will be ramping up production in the next 3/4 months. 40 year asset.
BUY
Q: If you bought this, would you pair it with a Bear ETF? A: No because this stock would hold up better than average. It is a little bit cheaper than average. He can make a case for a $45 NAV even with lower oil prices. Probably the 2nd Canadian candidate to split up.
BUY
Q: Would you Buy this and HBP Nymex Oil Bear (HOD-T) in case of a downside in crude? A: Neat pair trade, but would all the upside you get from Nexen be offset? In terms of price to cash flow this company is somewhat cheaper than others because it’s in places like Yemen.
BUY
A very interesting play. Have massive resources. Very well positioned for growth. Could be a takeover target.
DON'T BUY
Came in with earnings that were better than expected. Very strong ROE. Development at Long Lake is ramping up. Have a fairly good production profile going forward. Trading at a pretty full multiple with earnings in the $3-$4 range and cash flows around $6.50 to $7.50.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Thought the news on the company was actually quite good. Has shown some really good production growth out of Buzzard.
BUY
This is not his favourite. He would prefer Talisman (TLM-T), which has better prospects going forward and better pricing. Benefiting from the high prices right now and not a bad choice.
BUY
Probably the most likely of the non-oil sands seniors to be taken over. Good production growth coming. Good mix of oil and gas. Good international plus a bit of oil sands as well. You get a bit of everything with a whole bunch of 10% or 15% production growth years on the horizon. That's better growth than a lot of the big seniors.
BUY
Good variety of larger projects that are coming on stream in the next couple of years. Have an interest in the Long Lake project. Valuation is low relative to the rest of the group.
BUY
A lot of people have been wondering if they are ever going to get it together. Have had some production disappointments. Part of the issue is their bid on the small side to take on some of the bigger projects, so maybe they are stretched a little thin. There is a ton of potential in this stock and it is finally going to have its day.
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