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Nexen Inc (NXY.TO)

HOLD
(Market Call Minute.) Had a bad couple of years and he is having difficulty seeing the growth. Maybe a takeout at best.
COMMENT
Nothing wrong with this one, but he prefers others such as an integrated like Petro Canada (PCA-T), explorer/producer like Talisman (TLS-T) or gas producer like Encana (ECA-T).
BUY
He has a model price of $38.76. That's about a 38% positive differential.
BUY
Very attractive. At some point, the large international companies will be looking to get into countries where they have more security of supply and where there is upside in the drill bit. It may take 2 years for the markets to realize the value of these companies.
TOP PICK
Was one of the worst performers in 2007 among North American large cap producers. Now trading at 40% discount to NAV and the beauty is, about 30% of the assets are not producing cash flow right now. Going up 5.5X cash flow.
SELL
Not one of his favourites. He would be inclined to do a switch. Doesn't see a lot of excitement in 08 on the production side.
BUY
Has a lot of value. His model price is $41.41 giving it a positive differential of 39%.
DON'T BUY
Not one of his favourite plays. Capital budget has been reduced significantly. The market has moved the stock to the level that reflects the decline in budget. A lot of their big projects are winding down, so they need to find something new.
DON'T BUY
Not his favourite at the moment. Have cut way back on their capX. Their production in Yemen and the North Sea backed off last year. In a relatively low growth period. You would be better with Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or if you feel positive about natural gas, look at one of the big gas producers.
SELL
Oil weighted. Budget for 08 shows flat production over 07. She would sell this one and switch into something similar such as Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN-T), which would still give you oil exposure.
BUY
Prefers Talisman (TLM-T) but this is still a name you can buy. Could be a takeover candidate. Has solid properties but has had some disappointments in production.
BUY
He has a model price of $42.25, a 32% positive differential.
TRADE
Was like Petro Can was last year. Q3 reflects continuous disappointments for 2007. They have lost some market confidence. Has many concerns. He thinks you want to own it for long lake, and the significant potential for cash flow there. But there might be better ones out there.
DON'T BUY
Has come down recently. Predictions of cash flows in the neighbourhood of $6 this year and next. Their production profile is positive. Delays have plagued operation.
HOLD
Reported numbers that had investors frustrated. Most attractive large cap oil company from a price appreciation perspective. Has more upside potential than Su-t.
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