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Nexen Inc (NXY.TO)

BUY
Classic value play. Inexpensive on cash flow metrics, etc because they typically disappoint on production and earnings guidance 3 times out of 4. They are cheap enough that you can buy but they have had some issues. Could be some weakness in the short term.
COMMENT
NXY Cheap stock as execution has been particularly disappointing. There have been reserved write-downs in the Gulf of Mexico and a host of other problems including an 80% cost overrun on the Long Lake asset. Would Buy on deep pullbacks and sell on the rumours of a takeout.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Was moving in a fairly tight range of $19-$22, broke out of that with a very strong move but are now starting to see a pullback. Old high of around $22 could be its support level and could then go to $25 or so. Wait for the market correction to buy at the support level.
BUY
Diverse portfolio. Now is not a bad time to accumulate. You have the benefit of a lower multiple.
HOLD
(Market Call Minute.) Not one of her top picks but also not a bottom pick.
HOLD
Has always been a lot of talk about them being acquired so she hopes that one day it will be. An overhang is the start-up of the joint venture with Opti Canada (OPC-T) oil sands project. Technical issues are resolvable but taking a long time so people are soured on it.
DON'T BUY
(Market Call Minute.) Thinks there are better places to put your money. Longer term they have a reasonable growth prospect.
DON'T BUY
Doesn't see a lot of action going on in the stock. A lot of consolidation around $20. If you Buy have a Stop around $21.
BUY
2nd quarter profit tumbled 95%. The worst the numbers are and the less they deliver the better it is for the eventual takeover, which is what everybody is waiting for.
PARTIAL SELL
The biggest question would be Long Lake because that is their future for the next year. Long Lake has had a lot of surface issues with water. Upgrader is supposed to be operating 70,000 barrels a day but they can only get 18,000 out of the ground and it will take another year to get up to 70,000. If you own, she would recommend you take some profits as the acquirer Total has backed off.
WEAK BUY
This is a Buy but there are better names in this space. (See his Top Picks.) Rumoured to be the next take-out candidate. Production has been a bit spotty but is improving. Long Lake has been a very poor reservoir thus far.
BUY
Good company. Considered buying but chose Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) instead.
HOLD
Speculatively, it's potentially a takeout. Very good one to hold. Fully valued unless there is an escalation in oil prices.
SELL
Buzzard is doing really well and the Gulf of Mexico is moving up but still trying to get back to where it was before hurricane Gustav. Now has 65% of Long Lake. If looking at it for an oil-focused play, it is starting to look more expensive than its peers so consider switching to something like Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T). Would look for $23 before buying.
COMMENT
Can be quite volatile so don't go over weight in these kinds of stocks. Currently commodities are priced for a 2nd half recovery. If the 2nd half doesn't turn out to be what you hoped, this will probably retrace.
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