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Nexen Inc (NXY.TO)

BUY
Will be range bound until you see something happen with oil. He likes oil stocks and thinks oil will be a lot higher over time. You can’t find cheap oil any more, so that is a benefit to Canadian oil companies.
WAIT
A lot of its upside is tied to Long Lake but it's taking a while to work. She would wait. Just had a delay in another project. This one has operational risks.
DON'T BUY
Not a favourite in the energy space. Just put out an upgrade on their Long Lake oil sands project and continue to have problems with it.
BUY
Recently announced they were lowering their CapX for this year so a number of analysts have pulled back their estimates. Has a pretty neat set of assets. Very cheap.
DON'T BUY
Development at Long Lake seems to continually be longer than hoped for but eventually it will come into production. Recently announced a $2.5 billion capital expenditure program, which is a good step. From a price valuation, he sees this in the middle of the field. He would like to see it 10%-15% lower.
SELL
Assets across Western Canada, Gulf of Mexico and Yemen. Newest project is Long Lake, which has had a great deal of difficulty. Very difficult reservoir to develop needing Steam Assisted Gravity so have been unable to meet production projects. Refining looks very interesting. Better opportunities elsewhere.
HOLD
Well managed and in the right sector for longer-term.
BUY
This and Talisman (TLM-T) are statistically 2 of the cheapest oils. Thinks this one is a takeover candidate in the $33-$35 range. Slowly getting their act together on Long Lake.
DON'T BUY
(Market Call Minute.) Not too fond of this one. Until they start delivering on performance in their Long Lake project he won't look at it.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 20/08. Up 72.8 %.) Well diversified with a lot of projects globally.
DON'T BUY
Could be taken over. But because of the size of their projects, it is lumpy. It could go sideways for a long time. He doesn’t like it. It is at a higher multiple right now.
TOP PICK
Exciting places in the world and oil sands. They are able to take advantages of their partner’s financial problems. Possibility of a take over. Biggest risk is a major failure in anticipated production.
PAST TOP PICK
(Top Pick Nov 20/08, Up 81.78%) They say they are going to have their best year ever next year. These guys could be taken out at some point.
PAST TOP PICK
(Top Pick Nov 20/08, Up 59%) Pretty well positioned. Long lake held them back. Well diversified.
TRADE
Long lake project was a bit of a disappointment. They have dropped the ball on a couple of things, like their hedging and production off-shore. It’s a good play on oil longer term.
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