Newell Brands Inc (NWL)

They are going through a restructuring. The metrics look really good but you are buying into a transition. You don’t know when it is going to stop. If it gets above $20 it would be some positive momentum. It is in its period of seasonal strength.

Catching a falling knife as they resposition, selling a few businesses and using some proceeds to buyback stock and de-lever. There's little growth in their existing businesses and they're facing tariffs from products they buy from China. A lot of uncertainy in the coming year. Not confident in their earnings numbers.

Struggling like most consumer product companies. Revenue is flat/down. Streamlining assets will take time. It's paying 32% of earnings, so the dividend is safe, but it won't rise much.

The stock is getting no love. Not the best-run company. That said, it's begun restructuring (i.e. may sell a division, pay down debt, etc.) so it's a good time to step in. Also cheap at only 9x forward earnings. Pays a 4.3% dividend yield. Upside is ahead.

This is a turn-around play. They ran into a few problems including the threat from AMZN-Q. Their brands are iconic. They are divesting some of their brands and re-allocating capital. They are in 200 countries. (Analysts’ target: $27.09).

Doesn't like or understand the balance sheet, and is wary of companies where activists are involved. He won't touch this. Doesn't see when they will de-lever.

In the process of remaking themselves. Input costs have impacted them. They are going to sell some assets. Stock has been hit very hard. Not sure what the company is going to look like going forward. Don’t know the full effect of tariffs on this stock. She would scale out.

(A Past Top Pick on Sept. 20, 2017, Down 36%) They made a couple of purchases. Based on past ones, the street assumed they would be good, but last fall Newell was hit with big input costs through Rubbermaid and their biggest customer, Toys 'R' Us, went under. They also carry too much debt. But he's actually doubled-down on Newell. He believes in it. It's trading less than 1x book value. It's cheap. It's sold off businesses to reduce debt. It needs a few years to turn around.

(A Past Top Pick on Sept. 20, 2017, Down 36%) They made a couple of purchases. Based on past ones, the street assumed they would be good, but last fall Newell was hit with big input costs through Rubbermaid and their biggest customer, Toys 'R' Us, went under. They also carry too much debt. But he's actually doubled-down on Newell. He believes in it. It's trading less than 1x book value. It's cheap. It's sold off businesses to reduce debt. It needs a few years to turn around.

Many brands. They had problems in their supply chains. The stock dropped a lot. There is shareholder activism and they are divesting some underperforming brands. Analysts and the market don’t like it but he is willing to look down the road and if they clean it up it will be worth a lot more.

They bit off more than they could chew with their last merger. They've missed targets and are undergoing a massive re-organization. Attractive 10x earnings. Could be a bargain, but he won't buy until he's convinced they can right the ship.

They have many amazing brands. At 9 times earnings it is very reasonably valued. They did take on debt for a recent acquisition, but with Carl Ichan on the Board he is a buyer. Yield 3.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $30.55)

(August 1, 2017, Down 52%) He has since doubled his holdings. Bad timing. What went wrong? Newell acquired Jarden. Then, hurricane season hit, so it had to shut down factories. Back to school 2017 was a poor aseson. Toys 'R' Us, a big distributor, went under. But he's holding it and tough it out. Rubbermaid products aren't going away.