Stock price when the opinion was issued
It is the largest player in obesity drugs which includes Ozempic. A large percentage of the population in North America are overweight and this condition causes chronic diseases. Therefore obesity drugs help to bring down costs to treat these chronic diseases. The stock price has fallen because of an over-reaction to an announcement. It is a great franchise and has other businesses. The NOVO foundation owns the majority of shares and can't be taken over. Buy 7 Hold 4 Sell 1
(Analysts’ price target is $110.23)Sentiment's pretty rough on this name. Fairly cheap at 22x forward PE, 18% earnings growth. Regulatory scrutiny. Lost a bit of market share to LLY (which he still holds). Below 200-day MA, which is moving down. Growth of GLP-1 drugs is there, so he's keeping an eye on it for future.
Its stock decline is not unique in this market: most growth companies have been hit very very hard, in one of the sharpest sell-offs we have seen in some time. NVO is 19X earnings now, with a 2.90% dividend. The balance sheet is fine and good growth is still expected over the next two years. We would be comfortable owning this and riding out the current market malaise, which will end one of these days (weeks, or months).
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Is -17% this year and -42% the past year. It went too far too fast. He's been buying more on the way down, because obesity won't change, so their weight-loss drug will keep selling. Tariffs: NVO has facilities in the US already. 60% of revenues are outside North America (vs. Eli Lilly's 60% within US). To extend patent protection, a pharma company just needs to change its formula every 3 years to extend the patent protection. There will be competition, but NVO has brand recognition and scale.
Has owned this a long time, but has trimmed recently. Unfortunately, diabetes is a growing business. Stocks have fallen recently, because supply couldn't meet demand, but the price is attractive and reasonable.