Opinions David Fingold
Novo-NordiskNVOCOMMENTJan 03, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 24, 2026. Market Open.
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Weight-loss drug was a huge launch for it, yet LLY has been surpassing them on clinical trials and pipeline in the therapeutic area. Drug launch does not equal pipeline. NVO is behind, hence the 10x PE. If you buy, you're signing up for the dividend yield and the hope that it doesn't lose too much market share along the way.
Screaming buy? No. Touchstone, cornerstone, foundation? Absolutely not. Makes sense as a very small part of a broad, diversified portfolio? OK.
LLY is dominant in weight-loss, in large part due to aggressive marketing in the US. One positive is that its pill has been approved, rather than injections. LLY doesn't have a pill yet. Needs to right-size the company.
Paul Harris, CFA
Used to own. Sold in 2024 when it broke the uptrend. Trended downward until the fall, then has had 6 months to establish a decent base. Broke the downtrend, went above $50, acting as though it's under renewed accumulation. May not go screaming back up the way it did in 2023-24, but looking pretty good technically.
LLY is breaking out to new highs. Bit more diversified than NVO, and a bit more stable. LLY is supposed to come out with pill form for weight loss sometime this year. Well above 200-day MA, which is starting to push higher. Prefers LLY.
NVO is more focused on 2 areas: diabetes and weight loss. Recently announced pill version for weight loss, and that's very positive. Valuation's quite cheap. Competitive pricing, regulatory scrutiny. Trades at 17x PE, but earnings growth forecast looks cloudy for next couple of years. Might be building a base, but still a tad below 200-day MA.
Both have signed agreement with US government for expansion in Medicare, albeit with lower pricing.
Weight-loss space is currently a battle between NVO and LLY, though other competitors will arrive on the scene in the next 5-10 years. LLY secured way more capacity than NVO did. LLY executed better, and revenue and sales should grow much faster. He owns LLY.
Huge drop makes it more interesting, but LLY still has the better growth outlook (including the pill version when it hits the market later this year).
Jamie Murray (Note the shorter timeframe.) Has the lead in the pill version of weight loss drug, and really needs to make sure that people are using their pill (before LLY gets there).
Paul Harris, CFA
This is very involved in treatment for diabetes. Has stayed away because of the pricing of insulin. Insulin prices have increased almost every year sequentially for the last 20 years, which is incredibly difficult to understand, given the strides that have been made in increasing yields in the biotech fermentation process to produce the drug. Every time new entrants come into the industry, they seem to take the same pricing increase every year. In Europe, insulin is sold at a fraction of the price it is sold in the US. The US president could sign an Executive Order at any time, allowing imports of drugs from the European market, which would collapse the profitability of the industry. He doesn't understand the pricing dynamics.