Northland Power Inc (NPI.TO)

His dividend choice of the 3 Past Top Picks. At that time, had operational issues and no permanent senior leadership. Global assets amidst a positive outlook for power demand. Now has a great new CEO, delivering on growth projects. Will reevaluate at investor day in November.

It's been a pretty good year for renewable stocks, which you wouldn't have thought with Trump coming in. New offshore wind projects are coming on in the next couple of years, and then the cashflow starts rolling in.

Whole sector's been decent and looking quite interesting, more room to run than other spaces that have already moved. Energy is very topical relative to AI. 

Can see the breakout action on the chart, all pretty positive. Recent low is higher than the last low, gives you a place to hang your hat. The 3-year return is terrible, but there's a big bunch of upside if we can stay above the breakout level. Risk/reward is really good.

BEP trades at a premium among renewables. Also, Northland Power is far better than BEP, given NPI's better valuation and growth potential. Northland Power is far better than BEP, given NPI's better valuation and growth potential.

Have 2 major projects that they just or will bring online. Offshore wind is their biggest market. Are generating free cash flow and have a slate of projects coming on. The bigger risks come in building these projects, so the risk is gone once the projects are built. They will generate more cash flow and already have a good balance sheet. Renewables are out of favour because of Trump, but he sees potential.

Had 3 large projects on the go. One is now complete, under budget and early. Other 2 are on time and on budget. Great history on execution, leaving lots of buffers on projects. 

As projects near completion dates, projects get de-risked, stock price goes up. Starting to see that now, but still early enough to get in. Once those remaining projects get completed, cashflows should increase 45% by 2027. Yield is 5.42%.

Lack of wind does seem to be an ongoing issue. Bigger picture attracts him. Finished Oneida battery storage project in Ontario ahead of time and under budget (they are really good builders of projects). Two other projects ongoing -- Taiwan is on time and on budget, Poland is also seeing turbines installed. Lots of cashflow once projects come on. Prefers this new management team with respect to deploying cashflow. 

Stock's down today. Better pick today than before the earnings call ;)  Yield is 5.6%, while you wait for very achievable catalysts over next 2-3 years.

The chart for AQN tells the story for the sector.

Seeing signs of improvement. Both AQN and NPI have moved above 200-day (40-week) moving average, a positive. Especially so because a lot more quant funds are moving $$ in the markets, and one of the triggers they look at is whether or not it's above that technical level. It it's above, they can buy it; if not, either they can't buy it or they short it. Likes the regulated utilities -- FTS, H, EMA, CU, CPX.

If he were less cautious, he'd be more bullish. Not a big fan. More of a value play. Technically, they've been laggards. Better places to put your $$.

Stock's done well since May, as it completed its main Oneida battery plant in the Niagara region -- ahead of schedule and under budget. Cashflow can be used to make the balance sheet more attractive. Stock will be rewarded. Looks very stable going forward.

Likes it quite a bit for its 2 other projects on the go, which are expected to be completed in next couple of years. One in Poland, one in Thailand. Companies with a niche will do well, so he's not too worried about the non-green rhetoric coming from the US.

She's more in favour of it now than a year ago. The chart shows that the stock's slowly starting to take off. Sees an upward trajectory from here. Projects continue to come in under budget and ahead of schedule.

Power generator with consistent and concrete growth. Currently building 3 projects, on time and on budget, should come online in 2027.

Not sure if tariffs would be applied to this type of cross-border energy. Hit along with all the other clean energy. Likes it here. Nibbling on weakness. Compelling yield. Doesn't see a lot of upside, capped in mid-$20s for next 3-5 years.

He recently added to it. There's $25-26/share of asset value, considering all their projects on a NAV value. Question is, how will they finance growth? The answer is their new CEO, from Atkins Realis. He sees lots of value in NPI.

The bar wasn't high for them last year, but they still didn't exceed it. Wind performance remains an issue and the ambiguous management change caused unrest. Also, they had a problem with a sub-contractor in Taiwan where a death (not their fault) created bad press. They just hired a new CEO, who came from CNQ's board and Total, who will maintain the 7.3% dividend and will hit milestones in offshore wind (not exposed to the US, which is good). He likes the new CEO. They are in the building/development cycle, which they are good at. It's very positive. He would make this a top pick.

NPI has struggled a bit in the past year, down 24%. But overall we would see it today as a decent income investment at 16X earnings and a 6.85% dividend, with good earnings growth expected this year and in 2026. If it can execute on expected growth the stock should respond accordingly. Lower interest rates should also help here. 12-month payout ratio is less than 30% so there is room for a dividend hike. The dividend has not been raised since 2017. We would see it as a hold for income, and some growth. Most of its exposure is outside of the US, but Trump may still have a 'sentiment' impact on the sector. 
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