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TSE:NKO

Niko Resources (NKO.TO)

HOLD

He is long the convertible debenture and short the equity. It has been a tough ride. Had a nice discovery recently. Had some price relief from the Indian Government. It could be changing but it is a hold for now.

COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) This is an absolute speculation on giant oil/gas in Indonesia. We should hear something about this in August so it is capable of making a very big move. But it is a gamble.

DON'T BUY

Indian subcontinent oil/gas explorer. There has been a big discovery by its partner. There is also a question of ownership of one of its big finds. High risk/high reward play. If you are looking for oil/gas exploration, you might want to do it somewhere where the regulatory environment is more favourable to foreign investors.

TOP PICK

(Past Top Pick Sep 25/12) Had some balance sheet issues but they are gone now. Trading at a discount to NAV. The market is not giving any value for exploration. Thinks it has some very attractive value. Buy in the low $6 range.

HOLD

Has been a really, really bad performer. Might be better to hold on for an uptick in the stock price and then sell. Have had a string of dry wells offshore Indonesia.

SELL

(Market Call Minute) Is a pure exploration play in his opinion and he doesn’t own them.

DON'T BUY

On his Stock Watch list. At this time there are just too many problems with it that he can see. A risky play.

WEAK BUY

Great assets, best gas discovery in India in 13 years. Likes the management team. But they have not gotten any shareholder value in 13 years. Not his favourite name in terms of how much work he has to do on it.

SELL

Have a March year-end and he is expecting them to lose $2.50. Also looks like they are going to lose money in 2014.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick April 5/12. Down 71.96%.) Had problems in India but it looks like the pricing should be resolved in the next couple of quarters. Once pricing moves from $4.20 to $8-$9, it will double their cash flow out of India. Exploration at MJ1 in India should commence in Q2.

DON'T BUY

Has been a real challenging investment over the last couple of years. Outlook for their share price this year is totally dependent on exploration. Continue to have significant production issues on their offshore natural gas in India. Now into Indonesia mounting a very high impact drilling program. Believes they are 0 for 4 or 5 in the program.

WATCH

Has been beaten up, exploring in sketchy areas of the world. Great stock for the long term. Technically it looks like it is making a bottom. If it breaks $20 you have some upside potential.

COMMENT

Chart shows what appears to be a break from the downtrend. Before he calls it a true turnaround story, he would like to see it break through.

DON'T BUY

Huge gap down. 40% in one day. Looks like it will head down to $8 or $7. It looks negative. Such a clear downtrend. No confirmation of a bottom at all.

HOLD

It had potential but he got out. Can’t see a single catalyst for the next 12 months. Perhaps use it for tax loss selling.

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