Nike Inc (NKE)

Is -20% the past 6 months. The CEO is doing his best to turn things around and we need to wait up to 2 years. That's how poorly the company was when he received it. He thinks things will improve.

He had bought NKE as a turnaround story, which didn't really play out so he exited. Both are retail turnarounds with very strong brands. Logistically, it's very hard to turn around a brand and rejig the supply chain. These turnarounds take longer, with significantly more risk. (Compare that to a TD, which just had to cope with the one-time charge of a financial penalty.)

For NKE, with growing anti-American sentiment it could be hard to turn things around. LULU could, sometime, be a takeout target by private equity or another retailer. But that's not a reason to buy, especially when earnings and cashflow are still declining.

The principle of buying stocks whose products you use makes a great deal of sense. Eventually these things will turn around. But a stock that's been in decline for half a decade usually takes a bit of time to bounce back, and would probably need to build a bit of a base. (Whereas short, sharp declines can have short, sharp rebounds.)

Insider buying is a good sign. Likes US brands. Notwithstanding sentiment toward the US at this time, there's still an interest in the US as more investors are able to invest (such as Korea).

He isn't ready to buy it yet, because these retail stocks can be volatile. He wants to see an uptrend first. Retail turnarounds can work, but take time and can be difficult.

She just bought Nike. She seldom buys retail names, but she feels the new CEO is on track to turn Nike around. Earnings were actually good, but the stock got hammered on its China numbers were a pure miss. Nike just needs to get incrementally better. World Cup numbers are up. Businesses in individual countries will be given more autonomy in branding and footprint. In the US, running shoes were up 20%. Are focusing more on women. She targets $75-80. It's cheap here. Board members are buying shares. If the Supreme Court goes against Trump in IEEPA (which grants him sweeping tariff powers), these retail stocks will fly.

Doesn't know what to say. He sold this two years ago when it was worth twice as much. He can't believe the company can't fix itself, despite being a legendary brand.

Has had 4 straight down years. It's historic how managers have destroyed this company. You can't fix it. The new NBA stars don't sell running shoes, which is another problem.

They lacked the technological innovation to drive the brand into different, younger markets. They were complacent.

It reports Thursday. It's too early to enter this. The company was so messed up before the new CEO started a year ago. It's been that tough to turn around.

He did his "down from cost" review, and found that his turnaround thesis had changed. Three things limit upside. Tariffs. Structural changes in the Chinese business that will be difficult to overcome. Anti-American sentiment. He used the Q1 rally to exit.

It reported a solid quarter and shares jumped 6% today. The stock was lost under its previous CEO, but nearly a year ago they brought back a former executive to grow the business. He started a position in this last week. Their quarter: revenue and EPS beat. North America was particularly strong, though China remains a problem. Gross margins also beat, despite shrinking. Listening to customer feedback, they are redesigning their biggest franchises and brands. Shares jumped 20% in Q1. Also, they are selling directly on Amazon for the first time since 2019. Caveats: turnaround take time, something the CEO warns of. All told, he expects shares to reach $100.

They report Tuesday. Elliott Hill is the new CEO, whom he respects. Not sure if this will be the breakout quarter, but there will be one, and you should buy this ahead of time.

Pretty cautious on consumer names, since we're about mid-late cycle economically. Interest rates coming down might help the consumer. Stocked popped on optimism around the turnaround story. 200-day MA trend continues lower. Tariffs are an issue. Premium at 45x forward PE for 15-19% EPS growth.

In the consumer space, he'd prefer names like DOL or TJX. Downshift in spending going on now.

The largest sneaker company in the world. Almost zero debt. Are still buying backs shares and paying dividends. They changed CEOs and ditched his distribution strategy. ON is a competitor, but Nike has the money to produce competitive products. Are cleaning out past inventories which will impact the next few quarters, but earnings should double in the next few years. Shares are cheap now.

It's a long-term turnaround. A lot of damage has been done and many competitors came in, like New Balance and Hoka. Ultimately, things will work out.