Netflix Inc.NFLXDON'T BUYMay 24, 2018Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 21, 2026. Market Open.
He bought more, though it's a small position, because it traded down on a downgrade--but this was piling onto a stock that already had a tough time. He thinks for a trade, this will bounce. He though their last quarter was good, though the market didn't. With everybody so negative on Netflix, he thinks the bad news is already baked in.
He's buying more shares. Investors worry NFLX is losing share to YouTube and TokTok, while Paramount and Warners will likely merge. But NFLX still has the largest user base in the world and they make the most money per engagement. This allows them to add more content than their peers. They still grow revenues and profits. Still likes it.
(Note the short timeframe.) The market loved it for a while after the abandoned WBD deal. Then market started to focus on competition. But people aren't cancelling subscriptions; in fact, just the opposite. Trades at 20x 2027 PE for double-digit growth, terrific balance sheet. Boundless opportunities, sees so much upside.
Valuation has always been the Achilles hill for him on this type of companies. Trading at 100 times forward earnings with 44% growth rate. But what if there is more competition? What happens to this growth rate? 125 M subscribers worldwide. More now outside the US than in the US. The profitability of the international market is questionable. They are negative net cash flow.