New Flyer Industries Inc. (NFI.TO)

Chart had broken out and spiked up. Next level of resistance around $23, and then $26. You can tell yourself you'll buy when it comes back 25%, but it might never do that. Likes this name. Ignore market craziness, and focus on company fundamentals.

It had good news lately with better than expected results and a big increase in backlog. Margins however have been weak and need to go back to previous levels. He considers it a speculative buy.

Elevated debt. Strong market position with public transit buses. He struggles with the growth. Issues with expenses and suppliers. Tough business, topline pressure.

Creditors and government agencies has staved company off from bankruptcy. Looking forward - demand for buses will continue to rise. Would be a risky position to take, would recommend small position. 

$8 was a great buy. Support at $11.62, and if it breaks that, it could return to $8. Short-term, NFI looks good with this upswing and the wider market momentum. He doesn't know NFI's stock history, its fall from $60 to $8 (supply chain problems), but long-term there's weakness. The easy money has been made. Take 50% profits.

It's had a ride for the last 6 years. He once owned this back in 2018. Covid shut down their bus factories. Also, they had a leveraged balance sheet. Third, people aren't commuting to work as much compared to pre-Covid, so their order book is growing slower than once expected. They are adept are negotiating credit, so they're surviving. If you've owned this, think about selling it. NFI isn't out of the woods yet.

It makes electric buses which is a tough business for consistent results. It could be a bumpy ride with too many unhappy shareholders. It is healing a little bit and if buying use a stop loss at $11.50

You can't plan for black swan events. Portfolio management is your best friend. Great run since last May. If you bought at $8.50, and the stock's down today from around $13, he'd take some off the table but keep your position. Support around $11.60, $1 below where it is right now.

A problematic stock. They were behind on debt payments, but have worked things out with creditors. As one of the last busmakers in North America, they will benefit from future bus orders from cities. It has risen from recent (extreme) lows, due to settling financing problems.  A riskier-than-normal stock. If sales tick up, shares could leap by multiples, but who knows when?

Chart indicating a good time to buy. Recent turn around from downward trend. Looks as if company has reversed fortunes. Base has broken out which is positive news. 

End product is desirable, but supply chains have really hurt it. Reported this morning, and the market is cheering that news. High-risk name. Not for the faint of heart, but perhaps it's turned a corner.

It's gone wrong for him in the past, but opportunities still continue to grow--they're the only maker of EV buses in North America that suits the Buy-America rule. Covid and supply chains were tough for the company, sure, but better days lie ahead. There's less competition and more opportunity. He bought a lot of shares at $9. The valuation should be better. Financing issues are sorted out.

It has completed a $300 financing and the number of shares has risen by 40%. It has a record order backlog of EV buses but profit margins are expected to be weaker in the next couple of years. Watch for insider buying.

Canadian bus maker plagued by equipment problems (can't find inventory).
Inflation making business hard to generate profits.
Wait to see how business goes before buying.
Management needs to prove themselves. 
Recent issuance if equity not good for shareholders. 

Lots of supply problems, but dissipating rapidly. Quite a debt issue. Inflation caused losses on contracts. Had to issue shares. Company will survive, but how will the shareholders do? Stock's probably bottomed, but it will be a long slog.