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This is one of a series of companies that was basically acquiring drugs from large pharma companies. There seemed to be a lot of companies doing the same thing. Earnings estimates have been shaved by 15% in the last 90 days. However, earnings are expected to grow from $0.03 to $0.06, but you still have a 30X price earnings multiple, and as a result, people are kind of wondering if it is going to be able to be achieved. If they can continue to grow by acquisition, they should do well, but there are other companies that are starting up that seem to be in the same business. This makes for tough competition in a soft auction process.
This is a little bit in the penalty box because they missed on the quarter. The miss was on one of the products in Germany. There was a timing issue between quarters. They are cashed up for an acquisition and they haven’t closed one. As soon as they do, you should see the stock rebound. This is a super attractive level.
The stock got punished when they missed their numbers. It is now a pretty attractive value. Have filed the Shelf Prospectus to raise some money, which is probably because they are in the final stages of some negotiation to buy a new drug or a portfolio of drugs. When they do, the market will probably reassess. Right now this is a pretty attractive value.
Cashed up. A junior Valeant (VRX-T) or Concordia (CXR-T) with higher growth and a much cheaper valuation. Filed a shelf registration for $250 million in equity. Also, listed in New York (MSLI-N), so they can file the shelf. The market thinks that means there is an acquisition coming soon. Upon an acquisition, he sees $4 if they do what he thinks they are going to do. New CEO made a really good impression on Bay Street in the last little round. Very possible that you could make 33% in 6 months.
He likes the story. There are other players in the area as well. New management came in about a year ago and signed a couple of deals, and are probably going to sign a few more. Trades at a huge discount than its competitors, so people are moving into it. Thinks they were marketing in the US a few weeks ago, and you can see the volume has picked up.
This is a very hot sector and most stocks are not very cheap, so you have to approach it with caution. This company acquires sort of forgotten about products from some of the larger pharmaceutical companies. The CEO has a lot of deep operational experience in the industry, so will be very good at cost cutting and improving marketing. Despite recently raising a lot of capital, making an acquisition and poised to make more, it is still trading at a reasonable valuation multiple. Trading at only about 8-8.5 X EBITDA. Very strong balance sheet and have cash for more deals.
The CEO is X-Teva. This company is more loved by institutional people than by analysts. Forecasts are steadily going down. His fair market value for the company is about 48% below where it is presently trading. It has a really good balance sheet and he hopes they have some pretty good surprises next year. This company has some risk.
A good space to be in. Biotech is his favourite. Chart is pretty volatile and is at the upper end of its upward channel. Chart is going from a narrow channel to a wider one which means you are going to have to put up with volatility. He would also consider putting together a basket of these types of stocks, perhaps through an ETF.
Looking at the P/E ratio of the 40 fastest growing Canadian companies with a market cap of more than $75 million, this company is in the cheapest quartile of that group and is trading at about 5X 2016 earnings and is below BV. Thinks it has a lot of upside.