Stockchase Opinions

Martin Cobb, ASIPMicrosoft CorpMSFTBUYJul 16, 2026

Buy it, put it away for 10 years, do very well. Suffering from software outflows from large ETFs. Revenue still growing in teens, even better on EPS. Investing a lot in capacity (but they can afford it), which customers have signed onto for the next several years. Trades at 20x PE, yet nothing's really changed.

$401.10

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$521.91

As of Oct 30, 2026. Market Open.

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BUY

Among Mag 7 peers, it still has the best combination of cloud, software, AI, recurring enterprise revenue with enough cash flow to fund the huge AI build out.

COMMENT

It's one of the five biggest spenders in capex on data centres. If was the only to say it would trim spending. It had the best report of the three megacaps that reported this week, beating revenues and earnings while Google and Amazon missed both. Azure grew 48% and cash flow was positive. Capex spending for the quarter was much lower than expectations. Their spending will accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2027.

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TOP PICK

In the last quarter, the company reported 4.89 USD per share, beating the 4.72 USD estimate by 3.61%. Revenue for the same period reached 92.28 B USD, despite the estimate of 90.62 B USD. For the next quarter, analysts expect 4.85 USD in earnings per share and 95.95 B USD in revenue. Social media mentions are up 495% in the past 24h.

BUY

They reported total revenue growing 19% with total revenue growing 19%, and Azure growing 48%, beating the street. The AI tailwind keeps getting better.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 02/26, Up 26%)

He can't believe the market pushed this down to $400. The story then was that MSFT had too much tied to OpenAI, and that AI would disrupt their software business, Narratives change. MSFT is growing top and bottom line at a huge rate. He's own this since 2012. They will continue to see big earnings growth and deliver enormous free cash flow. Once the data centres are built, the hyperscalers will be the big winners.

BUY

Remember they reinvented itself for the cloud. It's a machine now. It fell earlier this year due to AI fears, but MSFT will benefit from AI.

BUY

They report next week. They boast 30 million paid Co-Pilot users. Azure's business will be up 40-45%, plus they are free cash-flow positive, unlike last quarter.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

One of two tech stocks he'd own today. 

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He wouldn't but today, but neither would he sell. So much of investing is buying at the right price, and then letting things work. Valuation's a bit rich. Look to add on a pullback. Well positioned on AI. Well diversified. Great balance sheet, lots of cashflow. Important that some of these companies can do massive capex, but not be FCF-negative.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Largest security company in the world, though obviously not a pure play. Look at this instead of CRWD.

SELL
The safe choice?

Wonderful operator. Likes it, but sold recently as it came close to his team's estimate of FMV. But that selling is not a reflection on the CEO or on the actual business. Its products are ubiquitous. Generates a lot of free cash. Doing all the right things.

BUY

Copilot could steer MSFT higher. More users use it than ChatGPT now, and leads ChatGPT and Claude on trust. MSFT is already a trusted company among businesses. Shares have jumped 40% over 6 months. They have good governance.

BUY

It's starting to recoup its large data centre investment. He stuck with MSFT the whole way down earlier this, because he had fait in the CEO who understood the need for data centres from their customers and was willing to ride the dip.

TOP PICK

The revenue growth from Microsoft's Azure's cloud computing platform is incredible. Microsoft CoPilot is getting better. People use Microsoft for many things such as email, writing memos, doing presentations and it is tied into institutional businesses. It is integrating AI into a lot of their businesses.      Buy 69  Hold 3  Sell 0

(Analysts’ price target is $570.05)
BUY ON WEAKNESS
When will it be low enough to buy?

It already bounced around its lows in the summer. The question is bigger-picture. It's the 800-pound gorilla. Enormous amounts of cash. Backing AI to the hilt, so they won't be left behind.

If you like technology, and the United States at all, just own MSFT. It's the core stock that will participate in whatever the next big thing is. They missed the internet, and they're not going to do that again.