Mike Vinokur, CFA, CMT, and CFPMorgan StanleyMSWEAK BUYMay 09, 2024

Reported last week and it was, arguably, the best of the bunch. Astounding ROE of 27%. Wonderful execution. Wealth management doing really well, especially with recent acquisitions. Capital markets business will do really well with huge IPOs coming up.

They report Wednesday. They should have a good quarter, and a fine latter-2026 when IPOs hit the market.

After doing really well last year plus turmoil from Iran, US banks have seen a lot of profit-taking. Long term, keep a core holding. If you take profits, consider diversifying into JPM.

Most banks have rallied strongly over last year and a bit, so yields have come down. As we look toward midterm elections, typically Republican governments are good for deregulation (allowing banks to invest more and grow faster).

Likes a lot of the large US banks. He owns JPM and GS.

This name is also a leader. Down ~13% from recent highs, but nothing to be overly concerned about. Stock's still making higher highs and higher lows. 200-day MA moving higher, with stock price well above, as is the 200-week MA. Healthy signs.

He likes US banks. Loan growth is up as is capital markets activity and investment activity. 

Has $5 trillion AUM. Have a strong wealth management business through tuck-ins, being half their business. They trade at 17x PE and a 17% ROE. Are positioned to do well.

It reports Wednesday. Should benefit from the strong activity in financial markets.

Nearly every big M&A deal in 2025 included MS (and JPM), and will continue this year.

He's going to pull the lens back, as he likes to look at things from a macro perspective. In 2020, we went from falling interest rates for 40 years to what is likely rising long-term interest rates for the next 25-30 years. That benefits banks in particular.

If you look at the XLF in the US, after going nowhere from 2008-2021, it finally made a new high. Beginning of a new long-term bull market that probably goes on 10-12 years. During that time, earnings go up and so do dividends. The multiple expands.

US banks have had a wonderful year. He's used JPM as a Top Pick many times, and he also owns MS. 95% of global banks are trading above a rising 200-day MA. Don't be afraid of a bull market. These are dividend growth stocks, and when there's inflation a rising stream of income is pretty attractive to offset the rising cost of living.

In terms of quality, hard to argue against JPM -- best of breed. GS is tops on the investment banking side. He's overweight US banks.

He bought it. The debt-to-equity ratio is a little better than GS, so he prefers MS. Owns both.

The capital markets banks are all performing really well. That tells you something about the rest of the market; if investors are focusing on these banks, then they must have a view that lots of deals will be done and that capital markets provide a good opportunity. This name is more investment management than trading, but still very attractive.

Had healthy top and bottom line beats. All three divisions beat. Wealth management is seeing huge inflows. 

A generation ago, their business was fixed income and capital markets. Now, 50% of business is wealth management. They have a toe in the water in capital markets, which should grow in the second half of this year with more M&A activity.