Martinrea (MRE.TO)

All three of the auto parts makers--Martinrea, Linamar (LNR-T) and Magna (MG-T) are at significant risk if the US imposes its auto tariff. Setting aside the risk, MRE ranks better in his database than the other two. He sold MRE and LNR in order to lock in his profits as the price declined. He may soon sell Magna. He will not consider buying them until their prices start to improve.

Of the three Canadian auto parts makers, MRE is #3. After some struggle, MRE has been running well the past five years. It lacks the leading edge technology of its peers. All three are being effected by politics (Trump's tariff threats). He owns Linamar instead. MRE is cheap now, but these companies are fighting current headlines. That said, he likes the stock. It has good fundamentals.

(A Top Pick March 30, 2017. Up 32%). Trade talks have hurt the auto parts companies. However, Martinrea has as much production in the US and Mexico as Canada. This is one of the cheapest stocks in Canada. The trade dispute fears are baked into the price.

Has a low multiple, 6.7x, compared to the market. E-cars and NAFTA are two worries, but MRE has 41% of its production facilities are in the U.S. and sells 35-40% of its production to America. MRE has little NAFTA exposure. (Analysts' price target: $20.50)

It was lagging for a while, then picked up over $16. It's done really well. He sold his shares too early. But with NAFTA worries, he'd trim holdings now.

He loves this stock. It moved up a while ago and keeps firing on all cylinders. He read a research report recently that indicated an upside of $27--assuming the demand for cars stays strong.

Exceptional world class business. He finds auto parts challenging. However they are well run and are a good performing stock.

(A Top Pick Feb 13’17, Up 71.07%) It has always been a big winner. After the US election it was down. This one worked okay. He still believes in it.

(A Top Pick Nov 23/17. Up 3%.) This is still very strong. It is going a little bit sideways. He still likes it. It is in a holding pattern going sideways after its big run up, and is in a "trend continuation" pattern.

This has done phenomenally well. In the auto parts space, there is the big story of peak auto, with North American auto production going down. In Q4 production was down 6%. In this company's case, they have a nice ability of being able to grow because of cost cutting. They’ve really been executing on their business plan, and made a number of investments that are starting to pay off. She thinks the shares will go higher.

It has taken off pretty significantly in the last number of months. Looking at the 10 year picture, it has broken out here. It would be bad news if it dropped back into the range it broke out of. It has to stay above $14 and then there will be room to the upside. This could waver a bit based on what happens with NAFTA.

This has risen 30% since he talked about it Nov 15/17, but thinks it is still attractive. On March 1, they are expected to report a 31% increase in the year-over-year earnings. Trades at 5.4 enterprise value to EBITDA on a trailing basis against 15% EBITDA growth. Dividend yield of 0.8%. (Analysts' price target is $17.)

Chart shows there has been a bit of a downtrend over the years, but starting in March of this year, it had a very, very healthy breakout. It is currently at the highest point it has reached in 5 years, which means it will probably go even higher. If he had to pick an exit point, it would probably $20 or $21, but it is really too early to say. If you own, keep riding the uptrend, and use a 10% Trailing Stop.

Linamar (LNR-T) vs Magna (MG-T) vs Martinrea (MRE-T) Has a small position in Magna (MG-T) which is the largest of the three. At this point in the auto cycle in North America, would be very hesitant about adding more. Thinks the bump up in number of vehicles in North America is plateauing. Very cyclical. You can see earnings and cash flow really degrade quickly rapidly. It’s one he would be careful and look for opportunities to sell on strong.

Because of the NAFTA overhang, this has had a very low valuation. However, it is a very good company. Has a very strong position in “light waiting”, the auto sector manufacturers that try to make cars lighter and lighter and be more energy efficient, but still strong. Margin improvement has been very good. In spite of the strong rise in the stock price, it is still cheap at 7X Forward Earnings. Dividend yield of 0.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $17.00.)