Stockchase Opinions

Colin StewartMaple Leaf FoodsMFI.TOPAST TOP PICKJun 30, 2021

(A Top Pick Mar 17/20, Down 6%) Plant-based area has earned a lot of attention. Unfairly penalized for the slower ramp up of meat alternatives. Trades at only 7x EBITDA, without the plant-based component. If the plant-based sector was spun out, share price would easily be over $40. Be patient, a ton of value, core business is strong.
$25.75

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$29.94

As of May 29, 2026. Market Open.

food processing
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WEAK BUY

Is defensive. Is a turnaround story with margin improvement. Good. But it has come off along with all staples. MFI pays a 2.5% dividend, which is not bad in this market. MFI is fine overall.

WEAK BUY

Has been a turnaround story in recent years. It is a staple, but not recession proof. Is a higher-end brand some products, so can be risky in leaner times. MFI is doing the right thing and pays a good, sable 3%  dividend. Prefers Premium Brands, but nothing wrong with MFI.

HOLD
Bought 4 months ago, now down ~25%.

It's really just a case of unfortunate entry timing. Spun out Canada Packers, and MFI shareholders received some shares of that. Looking more attractive at current prices, as the spinout eliminates a lot of the commodity risk. Heavy investment cycle is behind it, so now should see higher cashflow, higher returns, more share buybacks, and potentially higher dividends.

Hold, and you might even consider adding at this level.

WATCH

The sell-off in October and November was overdone. He's really interested in it. He has to study its fundamentals more, though.

BUY
In the season of tax-loss selling, a high-conviction name that's been unfairly punished.

#1 would probably be Telus. BCE is also in there. Names like AC, MFI, PRL, GSY, WFG, and TFII. All of these stocks are cheaper than they ought to be. All things being equal, those names should be higher in January than they are now.

DON'T BUY

Very volatile for a consumer staples company. Paying 15x forward PE for earnings growth of 6-7%. Missed in consumer packaged products recently. Sideways for last 5 years. Rising input costs cause margin compression.

WATCH

It is up 15% in the last month. Has a steady underlying business. Inflation has increased costs but it is catching up now and can increase sales prices and maintain costs. There is potential in the spin-off. Although he doesn't own it, it is moving up in their ranking system.

WATCH

Good picture. Something appears to have changed. May be testing old highs from 2022 and breaking out. If the breakout holds (and some breakouts don't), then probably going a lot higher. 

TOP PICK

It is the leading protein company in Canada. It is spinning out the bacon division which should increase the profit margins. Chicken sales are picking up. Free cash flow per share is up over 100%. Its free cash flow/capital is 8 times greater than the typical TSX stock. Its P/E for 2025 is 17.
Buy 6  Hold 1  Sell 0

(Analysts’ price target is $33.36)
DON'T BUY

She's anticipating economic weakness, hesitant even on the consumer staples space. Consumers in Canada have seen a lot of price increases in the last 24 months; spending same $$, but taking home less. Questions ability to continue to pass on those price increases. 

DON'T BUY
Meat processing business that relied on M&A in the past. Experiencing additional costs with inflation etc. People trading down to lower cost proteins. Does not own shares. Plant based protein business also suffering.
BUY
Holds it in high regard. Divested and modernized. Expansion into non-meat protein. Earnings are cyclically depressed. Not a barn burner of a growth stock. GDP-esque growth rate. Put in your RRSP. Will do well in the long-term.
DON'T BUY
Market didn't like its earnings, and so it's down today. Stumbling. Right sector, but not producing results fast enough for investors. Took on huge debt to expand. Sometimes it's better not to buy a company at the beginning of huge capex. Stay away right now.
TOP PICK
Meat segment has been doing well. Plant segment is a new and emerging area, and is #2 in NA. Trades at a significant discount to peers. Could easily be worth more than $40 a share. Yield is 2.62%. (Analysts’ price target is $35.19)