
NYSE:JPM
Largest and most diversified of the US banks. Leadership in retail, wealth management, and capital markets. Capital markets recovery is underway. Lots of investment in payment technology (automation, analytics), which is driving operating leverage. AI should be very beneficial to financials -- better customer experience and more efficiencies for employees.
Less regulation and lower taxes will help consumers and reduce bank loan losses. Yield is 1.82%.
Trades at only 16x PE, but don't buy it now. The CEO is great, a straight-shooter; when things are going well, the CEO tends to warn what could go wrong, which can be construed as pessimism which pressures the stock. This has often happened, such as announcing he would tighten the bank's lending policy. THAT's when you buy.
He's going to pull the lens back, as he likes to look at things from a macro perspective. In 2020, we went from falling interest rates for 40 years to what is likely rising long-term interest rates for the next 25-30 years. That benefits banks in particular.
If you look at the XLF in the US, after going nowhere from 2008-2021, it finally made a new high. Beginning of a new long-term bull market that probably goes on 10-12 years. During that time, earnings go up and so do dividends. The multiple expands.
US banks have had a wonderful year. He's used JPM as a Top Pick many times, and he also owns MS. 95% of global banks are trading above a rising 200-day MA. Don't be afraid of a bull market. These are dividend growth stocks, and when there's inflation a rising stream of income is pretty attractive to offset the rising cost of living.
One of his top 10 positions. Financial sector has been performing nicely. Best income, balance sheet, and technicals. Leader in the sector breaking out in 2013, whereas the sector didn't break out until 8 years later. That tells you what investors think about it. Long-term bull market in financials in front of us.
He owns many US banks. JPM's valuation is higher than others, but is a premium bank. Today they reported they were a little light on the investing bank side, which can be a lumpy business. Otherwise, their report was very good, beating top and bottom lines. Very pleased. But often, people sell the news, like today. Long term, is very bullish