J.C. Penney (JCP)

The trend is done and there is no sign of it breaking. Tax loss selling probably right now. Any rally be would use to get out.

This is one that he probably wouldn’t touch with a 10 foot pole because of all the controversy that has been going on. Chart shows a very strong downtrend but has been showing signs of finally bottoming. During the last month or so, it has started to outperform the market and is currently above its 20 day moving average, but it is debatable if this is a trend or not. Needs to show a period of time where it is showing regular trends.

Such a massive turnaround and restructuring, brand new management team. Way too much risk involved in this kind of turnaround. It would be a few years out before she would take a position.

Trends in department store businesses are negative. Highly levered balance sheet and a declining business.

Not a stock he would average down on. He prefers Macy’s, where valuations are better.

Has no visibility over the horizon. It is so troubled. He can’t see the future out there. So many changes in management. Core customers went elsewhere.

$1.92 model price, negative 76% differential. Solvency is a real issue for this company.

Did a huge financing and raised a little over a billion dollars recently to shore up the balance sheet. This probably got them through the real crucial issue of if they are going to survive the Christmas shopping season or not. This is a big ship to turn around. Retailing business is usually very competitive.

Fundamentals are clearly impaired. Management changes have not worked. Department stores in the US are feeling pressure. They were in a bad spot, did a bunch of changes that didn’t work and now are in a worse spot. Would not recommend unless you had high risk capital.

Too much controversy for him. Have been miss-managed. Apparel business is a fickle business. Consumer is demonstrating that they are not as strong and confident as we thought. They are trading more on technical issues and emotions, than the true fundamentals.

Clearly in a downward trend. When you see a dog that is barking, get out. This puppy is not going anywhere.

Likes retail and consumer discretionary in the US. Prefers XRT-N, the ETF. FDN-N as well.