Daily Stock Opinions and Ratings

Opinions

Greg GuichonHarvest Energy TrustHTE.UN.TOWAITOct 08, 2004

History included a very short reserve life, but a very high payout. Have been increasing their reserves. Recently made a good acquisition with Encana and obtained property at a very good price. May be ahead of itself.

Greg Guichon

Owned

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$21.85

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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SELL

Korea National Oil Company have offered to acquire but will be subject to government approval. If you own and have a nice profit and are close to the bid, Sell and that the arbitrageurs take the risk.

COMMENT

Being acquired by Korea National Oil. A lot of people are not happy with the price agreed to.

COMMENT

Sharply penalized because of narrow margins on the refinery side. Margins have been coming back. There are other companies that have more stability in the group but they have been doing better on both sides of their operation and that should continue. 8%+ yield.

DON'T BUY

Their payout is not very high but their debt is. The debt will become due in about 1 year. They'll probably do another equity issue so she wouldn't be surprised if they cut the distribution.

HOLD

(Market Call Minute.) Would hold the stock but by the convertible debentures.

DON'T BUY

Conventional oil/gas production in Western Canada and refining in Newfoundland. Had taken on a lot of debt to acquire the refinery and refining margins have not been good. Doesn't see this changing for while. Changeover in 2011 is another challenge and they have their work cut out for them.

COMMENT

As with many of the trusts, there is a risk that the 9.6% yield could be cut going into 2011. Their refinery business has been quite challenging.

DON'T BUY

Hasn't participated in the upside. Cheap, but for a reason. Refining operations will continue to be challenged and the upstream operations have never been stellar. Ugly balance sheet.

COMMENT

One of the few companies that has a refinery and have done quite well on the refinery margins. Has been playing this through the convertible bonds, which he thinks is a better way of playing it.

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Some potential for them but it is getting late in the day for energy trusts and he is nervous about their payouts.

SELL

Doesn't see a lot of upside so he would be comfortable Selling it. Took on a lot of debt to buy the refinery in Newfoundland.

COMMENT

When he gets into an energy stock, he wants to see a profile of some growth to protect the dividends going forward. (See Top Picks for an alternative.)

DON'T BUY

1st quarter on the refining side was very profitable. Debt is high. Need to do capital expenditures on their refinery. Much higher risk than others.

DON'T BUY

Last quarter had reasonably decent numbers. Downstream was reasonably strong. Likes management but has trouble seeing why you would want to buy this name right now. Thinks it will survive bankruptcy. Refining seems to be in a secular decline.

COMMENT

One of the riskier oil/gas income trust. Huge refinery in the Maritimes. Plant was upgraded and is good. The refinery can swing earnings around significantly. Oil and gas operations have not been that great. Likes the yield of 8.6%. Doesn't expect it to go back to its high levels of a couple of years ago.

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Summer Sale

Greg GuichonHarvest Energy TrustHTE.UN.TOWAITOct 08, 2004

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