Opinions
Michael Smedley
Hudbay Minerals
HBM-T
COMMENT
Aug 06, 2014
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Premium contentWe reiterate this Canadian producer of copper and gold with holdings extending into South America as a TOP PICK. We like that cash reserves are growing, while debt is retired. It trades at 11x earnings and 1.5x book. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $9) to $10, looking to achieve $16 -- upside potential of 27%. Yield 0.1%
(Analysts’ price target is $16.40)Premium contentTough to answer whether to buy. Impressive beat last quarter, much stronger outlook, markedly higher output in Manitoba, affirmed production guidance, positive free cashflow for 5th consecutive quarter. Nice growth. Not pricey at 18.5x 2025 earnings.
Depends on your view of copper. If you think it's going higher (partly due to Trump and partly to lackluster China), then the better view is yes, buy. He's a copper bull over time.
Premium contentOur PAST TOP PICK with HBM has triggered its stop at $11. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment loss of 12%, when combined with our previous guidance.
They operate in less politically risky areas like Peru which is expanding, and are not in Africa, and a copper mine in Arizona. Also will develop a project in Alberta. Today, they reached an agreement with the Cree Nation in Alberta--good news. Copper is needed for electricity production and we will likely see more demand in the future.
(Analysts’ price target is $14.56)Does have international exposure, so it's not immune to geopolitical risk. A country can look stable at the outset of an investment, but then look different 10 years later. More volatile relative to some peers, so you need a strong stomach. Long-term view still positive.
Still in metals, gold and copper, that will deliver growth going forward. Sees demand for gold getting stronger as we move through the year. Copper is still needed for the electrical and infrastructure grid buildouts.
Copper and gold. Significant FCF. Market's waiting to see what happens with its massive copper project in Arizona. Will probably need to find a partner on this one, would boost production by 50%. He hopes for shovels in the ground in 2026, then 2-3 years before first production comes online.
He's watching it for the second half of the year, waiting for an inflection point on Arizona mine news, including possible fast-tracking by the US administration.
Hudbay (HBM-T) or Lundin Mining (LUN-T) for the zinc? He likes them both, and likes very few mid-tier Canadian mining companies. Probably prefers this and the way management is expanding further outside Manitoba. They’ve acquired Augusta in this very depressed market, which was a very interesting thing to do. They now have a great North American asset. The expansion is working.