Goldman Sachs (GS)

At 13X earnings, considering earnings, capital markets outlook and interest rate forecasts, we think it still looks good.
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Likes US financials. Likes its ability to really take advantage of increased M&A activity. See his Top Picks.

Likes them both, as well as others in the sector. Don't look at the chart and not buy because it's gone up so much and you've "missed" the price move. Instead, look at the fundamentals -- have earnings, cashflow, revenue growth kept up with the price? Or, look to how it's trading against historical valuations.

He added not so long ago. Excellent opportunity, mainly on capital markets side. Good economy, reduced regulation. Unlike other areas of the market, valuations in financials are not extended, so there's opportunity.

Sells at 13x PE, and is doing very well. A solid buy.

This week, they delivered a giant revenue beat as earnings more than doubled YOY. Global banking saw 33% revenue growth, equities trading up 32%, investment banking fees 24%, asset/wealth management 8% and platform solutions 16%. Operating expenses were -3% YOY, in-line, efficiency ratio was 59.6% and bought back $2 billion in shares.

Banks in both the US and Canada look pretty good, though the US market is stronger. GS's chart has been in a strong uptrend since late 2023, though recent weakness sees it falling back to that trendline. Hope that it bounces off that and buy. You don't want to see the stock fall further down. See if it holds before buying.

Banks earnings happen next Wednesday: JPM, Goldman, Wells Fargo and Citi. He expects good reports from all. The expected increase in M&A will benefit all. These stocks are off their highs at very low PEs. He's been buying them.

New purchase for him, using proceeds from trimming JPM. Key player in capital markets. Capital markets business in 2025 should do extremely well -- lots of pent-up demand from the tight regulatory environment, which will change under Trump. Steepening yield curve will benefit. Undemanding valuation of 1.4x book. Yield is 2%.

Will benefit from more M&As expected in 2025.

The question was on his preference of this group of wealth management companies. He owns all three for different reasons. The possible lack of regulation under the new administration has already boosted them. They are in excellent financial shape and have good dividend growth. It is not an expensive sector.

Durability of earnings not as high as, say, MS. Earnings are more cyclical. For Q3, surprised even themselves compared to what they were guiding going in. So if even the company doesn't know what to expect, it puts the investor in a tough spot. Still a reasonable business.

They just delivered a blow-out Q3 with  =20% investment banking fees, +16% asset management and $12.7 billion revenue as operating expenses were -8% YOY with 11% tangible equity return. A monster bottom-line beat.

They report tomorrow. Earnings are often predictable, though you don't know what he trading and investment activity will be for GS. He expects earnings to be robust and the messaging positive. For GS he also wants to hear about their foray into retail, though this is absorbed in the stock price. BAC's retail operation has been successful, and he wants to hear about credit delinquencies given that consumer debt is at all-time highs. He expects more of the same from these two banks.

An investment-focused name. Bit more leverage, bit more beta. Likes this space, but it's not as conservative as the money-centre banks.

He bought more GS this week. Their credit cards have been their major overhang; they announced they will get out of the consumer business and are close to a deal with Barclays. The charge-offs could be 10%, twice the industry norm. And who will take the Apple credit cards off their hands? These won't impact GS long term. They did give a target of raising $225 billion in third-party assets to support their wealth management business, which they've already surpassed. Their pipeline has increased a lot, too. Trading revenues are -10%, but last year's comps were so great. Is trading a little over 11x PE 2025.