Goldman Sachs (GS)

Of the big banks, they are the most levered to investment banking, including IPOs. He bought it expecting an uptick in IPOs under Trump, but his tariffs have temporarily derailed that. The IPO revival should happen if tariffs don't return. This pulled back hard since mid-February because of those tariffs, down 35%.

A buy at 11.8X earnings.

If he were in charge, his share buyback zone would be between $360-450. Looking at the chart, you can see overhead resistance since the election; this shows up on so many stocks, and is more of a sell zone. See today's Educational Segment.

It reports Monday. As an investment bank, its business can be episodic, but he expects the CEO to deliver on the top and bottom lines--the top because of trading (their forte) and bottom because of, well, firing a bunch of people that they've been doing.

The US about to see a wave of mergers and IPOs and GS will benefit from that.

The analyst who downgraded GS is saying nothing new, including a delay in the M&A cycle. The IPO market will likely emerge in second-half 2025. Also consider is defaults will rise? Lending growth slow or reverse? The overall economy slow down?

Likes it. Financials should be one of the leaders coming out of the current environment, as they were before the recent volatility. Down ~22% from recent highs last month on recession concerns. 200-day MA seems to be support where you can buy. As Buffett says, "Be greedy when others are fearful."

One of the leaders in investment banking and wealth management. Will benefit from deregulation and potential increase of M&A activity.

At 13X earnings, considering earnings, capital markets outlook and interest rate forecasts, we think it still looks good.
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Likes US financials. Likes its ability to really take advantage of increased M&A activity. See his Top Picks.

Likes them both, as well as others in the sector. Don't look at the chart and not buy because it's gone up so much and you've "missed" the price move. Instead, look at the fundamentals -- have earnings, cashflow, revenue growth kept up with the price? Or, look to how it's trading against historical valuations.

He added not so long ago. Excellent opportunity, mainly on capital markets side. Good economy, reduced regulation. Unlike other areas of the market, valuations in financials are not extended, so there's opportunity.

Sells at 13x PE, and is doing very well. A solid buy.

This week, they delivered a giant revenue beat as earnings more than doubled YOY. Global banking saw 33% revenue growth, equities trading up 32%, investment banking fees 24%, asset/wealth management 8% and platform solutions 16%. Operating expenses were -3% YOY, in-line, efficiency ratio was 59.6% and bought back $2 billion in shares.

Banks in both the US and Canada look pretty good, though the US market is stronger. GS's chart has been in a strong uptrend since late 2023, though recent weakness sees it falling back to that trendline. Hope that it bounces off that and buy. You don't want to see the stock fall further down. See if it holds before buying.

Banks earnings happen next Wednesday: JPM, Goldman, Wells Fargo and Citi. He expects good reports from all. The expected increase in M&A will benefit all. These stocks are off their highs at very low PEs. He's been buying them.

New purchase for him, using proceeds from trimming JPM. Key player in capital markets. Capital markets business in 2025 should do extremely well -- lots of pent-up demand from the tight regulatory environment, which will change under Trump. Steepening yield curve will benefit. Undemanding valuation of 1.4x book. Yield is 2%.