Goldman Sachs (GS)

Global powerhouse in the financial space. Moving away from the consumer and more toward higher-margin asset management. Expected earnings growth of ~15%. Recovery in capital markets, investment banking volumes improving. 

Lower interest environment and more risk appetite out there. Potential policy tailwinds such as more deregulation and lower corporate taxes. Will see more share buybacks. Yield is 1.92%.

In terms of quality, hard to argue against JPM -- best of breed. GS is tops on the investment banking side. He's overweight US banks.

He's not a good trader. To paraphrase: "There are bull markets and bear markets, but at the end GS wins." We've seen that this quarter with respect to their trading profits. It's been a great way to play capital markets forever, and all the banks' capital markets divisions are doing well.

The capital markets banks are all performing really well. That tells you something about the rest of the market; if investors are focusing on these banks, then they must have a view that lots of deals will be done and that capital markets provide a good opportunity. He'd buy more.

Delivered a blow out quarter, top and bottom lines, thanks to their red-hot global banking and markets division. Investment banking is up 26% YOY. The return of M&A is a key driver. 

Is perfectly positioned for the tailwinds under the Trump presidency. After April's tariffs, corporate boards have been sitting and waiting, reluctant to do deals, but a strong capital market will eventually happen. Pays a good dividend and are very well-capitalized.

Of the big banks, they are the most levered to investment banking, including IPOs. He bought it expecting an uptick in IPOs under Trump, but his tariffs have temporarily derailed that. The IPO revival should happen if tariffs don't return. This pulled back hard since mid-February because of those tariffs, down 35%.

A buy at 11.8X earnings.

If he were in charge, his share buyback zone would be between $360-450. Looking at the chart, you can see overhead resistance since the election; this shows up on so many stocks, and is more of a sell zone. See today's Educational Segment.

It reports Monday. As an investment bank, its business can be episodic, but he expects the CEO to deliver on the top and bottom lines--the top because of trading (their forte) and bottom because of, well, firing a bunch of people that they've been doing.

The US about to see a wave of mergers and IPOs and GS will benefit from that.

The analyst who downgraded GS is saying nothing new, including a delay in the M&A cycle. The IPO market will likely emerge in second-half 2025. Also consider is defaults will rise? Lending growth slow or reverse? The overall economy slow down?

Likes it. Financials should be one of the leaders coming out of the current environment, as they were before the recent volatility. Down ~22% from recent highs last month on recession concerns. 200-day MA seems to be support where you can buy. As Buffett says, "Be greedy when others are fearful."

One of the leaders in investment banking and wealth management. Will benefit from deregulation and potential increase of M&A activity.

At 13X earnings, considering earnings, capital markets outlook and interest rate forecasts, we think it still looks good.
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Likes US financials. Likes its ability to really take advantage of increased M&A activity. See his Top Picks.