Alphabet IncGOOGWAITDec 17, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 10, 2026. Market Open.
Fears that AI would eat its lunch. Harder for Anthropic to monetize a new tool than for GOOG to take AI and apply it to a business model that it already monetizes. Muscle memory of the populace gravitates to GOOG to find information. Probably thrives in the new AI world, until something more disruptive comes along.
AI monetization is happening, and AI Mode has been a game changer. Stronger cloud growth (revenue grew 63% YOY last quarter, tremendous), broader monetization across platforms. Search and advertising remain strong, lots of cashflow. Also a great ecosystem.
Good growth, but relatively decent valuation. Yield is 0.25%.
A year ago, consensus was that Search was going to die. Seems ridiculous now. Gemini is overtaking ChatGPT. Data centre business is growing faster than before. Still not that expensive. He hasn't sold any shares yet, but may take some off the table from the long-term holding and put toward one of the Mag 7 laggards.
He shares the market's concerns on valuation and the AI buildout. There's this massive outlay of money by companies, but no one knows what the returns will be. He suspects returns will be infrastructure-like. But he always believes that if you buy right, the upside will take care of itself.
Absolutely loves this name, he's been invested for many years. To his mind, has the best platform, data, massive profitability, very attractive balance sheet, and AI capabilities. Lots of hidden value in non-core assets, which is starting to be realized. Valuation is more fair today, right round 28x adjusted earnings -- not massively expensive, but still rich. If you own it hold on, but it's not a buy today. Be patient, don't chase. Look for more of a pullback, and he thinks you'll get it.