Stockchase Opinions

Scott Morrison CGI Group (A) GIB.A-T TOP PICK Jan 14, 2005

A contrarian pick. Looking at it relative to its peers in the US trades at about 10 X earnings versus a multiple in the teens. Good free cash flow yield. Made a US acquisition last year which should help them show growth this year.
$7.510

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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WAIT

3/10 on value, not too attractive. Super-volatile stock. Fundamentally, 9/10. Employees are in 400 offices across 40 countries. AI boom isn't going anywhere. Valuation stretched, upside potential of 6%. Wait to see how the tech play is going before entering. Good long-term hold.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 03/23, Up 11%)

Well-positioned for digital trends in the space. Wouldn't buy today, as valuation is above his buy price. No problems owning.

BUY

A long-term hold of his. Has done very well for him. A leader in global IT consulting. Are focusing on AI now. Are successful in buying and integrating companies around the world. The stock is no longer expensive. Margins are improving; managed services offer recurring revenues. Decent valuation and growth ahead. They will start paying a dividend.

HOLD

Relatively low organic growth. Relies on making acquisitions to grow, and they've been successful. His choice is CSU, but you'll be OK in GIB.A.

TOP PICK

Attractive entry point. Defensive and recurring revenue stream, as contracts tend to be quite long-term. Half IT outsourcing, and half consulting. Consulting has slowed due to macro uncertainty, but some of that's probably stabilized and we should start seeing growth. No dividend.

HQ in Montreal, but Canada accounts for only 15-20% of its business. US and UK each account for about 1/3. Very global. Very disciplined acquirers. Balance sheet strong, generates free cashflow. Organic growth should start to improve, and so M&A will swing to the upside as well.

(Analysts’ price target is $166.39)
WATCH

It's hoping to win more contracts as well as benefit from AI. Every single company is trying to implement AI into their products. Slow-growing business, more acquisition-based. Hasn't knocked it out of the park. A quite reasonable valuation. Actively looking at, would love to buy on a material pullback.

HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

In its annual report, GIB.A disclosed the degree of client concentration, the company’s revenue with the U.S. federal government consisting of various agencies accounted for around 13.5% of GIB.A’s total revenue in FY2023.

The U.S. government is one of the largest customers of GIB.A. That being said, so far, DOGE is mostly just noise. Of course, there is always a risk when doing business with the government especially when companies raise prices with the government too much. We don’t think GIB.A is the target of that program, there are lots of other niches that demonstrate price-gouging behaviour rather than IT services.

Even in the worst-case scenario, if GIB.A is limited in terms of raising its capabilities with the government; we think the company can still do just fine if the other 87% of its revenue sources keep doing well.
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 13/23, Up 9%)

Corporate budgets under pressure has dampened spending. Backlog has remained very strong. Hasn't grown as strongly as some peers. Sitting just above his buy price at north of 20x; for new $$, wait for a better valuation.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He can't explain the big drop today, but a 6% drop in this name is unusual. Chart shows what a good company it is. Operates in Canada, US, Europe, and India. Should be advantaged by near-shoring. Lots of US government customers, and that should play well with Trump 2.0.

Stable grower, well managed. Drawdown is probably a buyable opportunity.

WATCH

DOGE has put the chill on companies with US government contracts. Stock's possibly fallen too much, as the company provides critical services. One of the best-run companies in Canada. Getting attractive. Before you buy, research how much US exposure it has. Long-term thesis is that everyone is looking to implement AI.

He'd like to have more clarity on government contracts, but this is why there are risks and rewards in investing.