Stockchase Opinions

Jim Cramer - Mad Money Bitcoin Investment Trust GBTC-OTC SELL Jan 12, 2024

According to technical analyst Larry Williams, 8 out of 9 times in the 270-day cycle, Bitcoin has reached a stage where it sold off hard. The last sell-off was Feb-June 2023, then it turned positive. Before that was July-October 2022 when it sold off again. Also, Williams notes that when Bitcoin gets very overvalued vs. gold that Bitcoin hits an inflection point and Bitcoin sells off. Third, Bitcoin is seeing high volumes in it, and that typically signals a sell-off to come. Fourth, his data tells him that professionals are selling into strength. Expect a little weakness, then a bounceback, then Bitcoin will decline hard.

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DON'T BUY
Blockchain is interesting and has many applications such as insurance. But currency has to be controlled, like a central bank. Yes, you can transfer wealth using Bitcoin, but what's to stop someone from hacking this. Control? This doesn't make a profit. He doesn't see this becoming a mainstream currency until a central bank controls it. Otherwise it remains a pseudo-currency.
COMMENT
News that the owner of a crypto exchange died and took the password to $190 million of cryptos with him. It's not the first issue in this space. Last year, there were similar problems in Asia with fraud or people losing the password. Generally, he sees how cryptos are useful in some cases, namely developing nations, but in a developed country with perfectly good banking, it raises the question of why tie up a lot of money in a crypto apart from speculating?
DON'T BUY
Bitcoin has outperformed the price of gold since 2015, even after falling from its 2017 all-time high. Don't be emotional about investing. Have a thematic approach and be neutral. Be Zen towards the market. Use your system and not emotion. Bitcoin is in a downtrend since late-2017. He needs this to move out of this downtrend and show an upward move.
COMMENT
He has no participation in the space. He lacks knowledge in the area but anything that has been destroyed as much as Bitcoin has is of interest to him. He has to pay attention as a portfolio management. It has been bombed.
DON'T BUY
No one has ever explained Bitcoin to him. Why has it taken off like this? Says Warren Buffet: don't understand it, don't buy it. Why get paid in something that fluctuates so much? It's a pure speculation, but he doesn't know if it will keep going up or not.
RISKY
It's had a challenging year. This is a concept stock. You can put 1-2% of your portfolio in Bitcoin, definitely not part of a retirement plan nor a core asset. It's money you won't be upset about it if the stock goes down.
DON'T BUY
Had a huge sell-off at end-2018 and last year couldn't hold onto $15,000. Doesn't see much positive going forward. That past peak in late-2018 will discourage investors from buying.
COMMENT

Early this year, GBTC had a 50% discount to Bitcoin's price, but now only 18%. She owns a small position. All the fraud that happened last year in this space was a game-changer, so she wants to see the actual use cases of open AI in relation to crypto before she invests. A big wait and see.

BUY

At these levels, you can buy this, not Coinbase.