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NASDAQ:FTNT
This summary was created by AI, based on 5 opinions in the last 12 months.
Fortinet Inc (FTNT) is currently facing significant challenges in the cybersecurity market, primarily due to a decline in investor confidence triggered by fears associated with artificial intelligence advancements. Despite the company's potential for growth in a sector where demand for cybersecurity remains high, it has encountered negative price action, exacerbated by past security breaches. Key technical levels are being tested, with analysts noting the importance of the $80 support level, which is now at risk of failure. Furthermore, the stock is considered overvalued based on its forward price-to-earnings ratio in relation to its growth expectations, raising caution among experts compared to its peers in the cybersecurity space.
The stock is plunging 16% after reporting. The fall is idiosynchratic, otherwise peers like Crowdstrike would be down as much, too. Fortinet faces major challenges in their firewall products. Owns it, but not every stock in your portfolio will be perfect. Is holding this at a loss. Many analysts have cut back price targets to $50-52.
Cyberattacks are not going away. Global leader, second only to PANW. Long-term, seeing robust secular trends of escalating threats, digital expansion, and increased budgets allocated to cybersecurity. Work from home and internet of things will also drive demand. EPS growth rate about 18-20%. No dividend.
(Analysts’ price target is $74.79)Has done well with this for the past few years. The big competitor to Palo Alto. It benefitted from the pandemic during remote work. Also, there's a secular market in cybersecurity. He sold it a few weeks ago after they reported Q2. Things changed abruptly; corporates are prioritizing away from cybersecurity and spending instead on AI. This spending is probably deferred, not cancelled.
He bought this in early March at $126 and sold it today at $147. It's the least profitable cybersecurity stock and he's a little troubled by the rising move in interest rates, not peaking as he expected. So stocks like Crowdstrike will be challenged. This is a valuation trade, and he will buy Palo Alto and/or Fortinet at a lower price (they have lower valuations). Ring the register and take profits. Fortinet generates strong free cash flow, and also scores well in ROE and debt-to-equity. Maybe not a super balance sheet, but they have the flexibility to do the things they want, because they have profits today. So, they're less reliant on funding from the debt markets and less effected by rising rates.
He used to own CHKP. Both PANW and FTNT are strong businesses, market leaders in the space and taking market share away from CHKP.
Challenge is that PANW and FTNT are really strong in this industry. Good for the consumer, but may not be good for the businesses in that space. At 46x PE, PANW is really expensive, growth needed to justify that valuation is substantial, high valuation keeps him on the sidelines.
Look at the space as a whole to see if you want to be involved, rather than choosing just one player. Does like the aspect of customer "stickiness" in that once a customer signs up, switching costs are high.