Brian MaddenFortinet IncFTNTDON'T BUYAug 28, 2023

The cybersecurities have re-rated down a lot from AI fears, but FTNT is still growing. Cybersecurity will remain important while this AI disruption still needs to be proven.

Begrudgingly, got out of this one as well -- mainly because of the price action. Great story on paper, but there were more sellers than buyers in the market, and you have to respect that. Last summer it actually got hacked, so it's suffering more than the others. 

On the 3-year chart you can draw a line through a level of support around $80, and it's sitting on that right now. There are "reversal levels", where something that's resistance becomes support. He's also noticed that markets are drawn to round numbers. 

So $80 is a key long-term level for FTNT, and it's starting to fail. Even 50 cents or so below key support is enough to show that the failure isn't just a blip. More importantly, it hasn't gotten back above it. Quite troubling.

33x forward PE, for 11% growth -- gives you a PEG over 3, rich. Now trading below 200-day MA, which itself is starting to trend down a bit. Technically, cautious on this name. Look at CRWD, a larger player, but it's not inexpensive either.

The weakest cybersecurity stock.

Looks cheaper than others due to the very conservative nature of management, they always sandbag the earnings. His 12-month price target is $117. International. Hardware and software licenses, which make it a little bit different. Really, really likes it. No dividend.

Cybersecurity demand remains entrenched. This has the strongest balance sheet compared to PANW and CRWD.

He took profits and switched to CRWD on its weakness. Really likes the space; attacks are only going to get more plentiful and more challenging. It's more expensive for companies to suffer attacks than to pay a company for cybersecurity. Looks decent technically, wants to see profits. If it corrects nicely, he'd look at it again.

He still owns it, one of the best performers over the summer. Conservative in reporting, taken to the woodshed for that, but has come back very well. 

Took profit on the spike of a few weeks ago. Likes the space in general and its long-term potential. Can't get away from the growing frequency and sophistication of cyberattacks around the world.

Company has been doing better. Would prefer a company called Palo Alto. Valuation very high, even though tech is strong. Better options for investors in the markets. 

Cybersecurity stocks are back today. Don't trade, but invest in cyber. He's very bullish cybersecurity. Of the big three, though, Fortinet has the best balance sheet in the sector.

Chart's moving sideways. Support ~$50, resistance ~$75-80. He likes this kind of stock for a trade. Based on past history, decent chance it will make it to the top of the range. No dividend.

Trades at 30x forward PE and 33% free cash flow margins. Super fundamentals, and yet shares are ignored. This outage could help Fortinet shares.

Hold for now, but he wouldn't hold it going into earnings, estimated to be August 2. Management is tremendous, but very conservative, and they lowball numbers and then stock rolls over.

If you ever get a chance to buy CRWD, that's a good one in the space.