FedEx (FDX)

Trades at a 14x PE. Issues include buying a weak integration of a European company, TNT (in 2016), they bought. However, e-commerce has helped deliverers like FedEx. Amazon is developing its own logistics business, too. In the right environment, though, these companies do very well.

Based on analyst Larry Williams' true seasonal index He likes this and UPS, both of which are essential to the stay-at-home economy. Williams says retail falters around now, mid-December through mid-January. He has his doubts about this call, because Covid is increasing deliveries during the holiday season, but also in moving vaccines.

FDX vs. UPS If you believe we're headed into a new economic cycle, transportation is a great place to be. UPS and FDX are the most obvious beneficiaries of the move to online shopping and logistics. Can certainly pull back. Both good, but he prefers UPS, as business model is more unified. Strong operating base. Fedex was cobbled together, operational issues.

A Covid vaccine distribution play - cold chain: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_chain Arguably, they are ahead of UPS in shipping very cold items, which the Pfizer vaccine demands. In the last three years, FedEx has added several cold chain facilities around the world.

Part of his Fear Factor portfolio of stocks that will thrive with or without government stimulus during Covid This and UPS were hated recently, but they enable the stay-at-home economy. FedEx's investments in its shipping network are finally paying off.

A recession in a year It benefits from more online shopping. Also look at Cargojet. We're in a recession right now. What if the government hadn't offered CERB and similar assistance in the US. Will this government assistance continue? Probably yes, or else we would be in a depressing situation. OIl, gold and real estate will be pressured near-term, but in a few years will take off. Expect inflation down the line with all the money that's being printed during Covid assistance.