Walt Disney Co. (DIS)

Underperforming for quite some time. In his RSI ranking for the US, it's been in the red zone (bottom 50%) in major indexes like the S&P 100. Peaked above $110, then failed. Positive earnings surprise today, still it hasn't come back yet, and that's important. $88 now, technically you want to see it get above $100 again.

It reported today. Shares jumped, then fell like the markets, but he liked their quarter. Their movie drought is over with current summer hits, while ESPN's ad revenues rose 17%, but Disney+ surprised with its profits (instead of disappointing in the past) one quarter ahead of predictions. DIS fell today because the US consumer needs a rate cut--consumers won't pay this much for the Disney theme parks. Park income fell a shocking 6%. Trades at a cheap 17x PE. He expects the parks problem can be solved; they can cut park prices. 

"New" CEO will make a huge difference. Still reeling from continued uncertainty at parks. Studio tent's starting to show signs of turning around. Long-awaited inflection in direct to consumer, profitability expected soon. NBA rights deal, seems imminent, could be a catalyst. Yield is 0.9%.

Buy the great franchises when they're down. Technical signs show it's skipping along the bottom. Reasonable at 17x, cheaper than the market. 17% EPS growth. If you buy here, it won't hurt you.

Going through a rough patch. The parks have become more expensive. Challenges in streaming, playing significant catchup to NFLX. He'd pass. Though valuation is as cheap as it's been in a decade, it's for good reason. EBITDA pressures are building in a lot of different ways.

There is an opportunity for it to turn things around in streaming. But when you're playing the #2 to NFLX, which has already achieved a huge subscriber base and is now pushing price and content, DIS has to disproportionately win in the content creation game. DIS doesn't actually own ESPN right; it has to bid on them. For example, the NBA recently went with AMZN.

She's suffered along with rest of investors. Encouraged when Bob Iger returned, he's got the skill set and track record to get DIS back on track. Streaming will become profitable come September. Inside Out 2 hugely important and doing well. Florida tax situation resolved. Parks have lots of creative content potential. She's giving them more time.

Trades at 20x PE. He's been buying shares. It enjoys box office success and the theme parks.

Absolutely compelling value. Big news is that streaming will break even this year, poised for significant growth. Biggest profit generator are theme parks, which are bustling and booming; insane prices, but parks are full. Earnings should easily grow by 20% for next 2 years. Dividend is back, share buybacks will follow. Incredible content creator. Yield is 0.9%.

ESPN is still growing, but more slowly. Morphing to streaming. Ad revenues are up, and presidential elections are a big boost. CEO succession has been a board issue for sure, a black mark on the company. We'll have to see over the next 12-18 months.

It had a big slide over two years followed by a big rally from $91 to over $120, followed by a pullback presenting a good buying opportunity. Sell if it goes below $95.

She's going to keep holding for now, unsurfaced value. Confidence in Bob Iger, he knows how to make deals and focused on making streaming profitable, which it will be by end of September. Post-pandemic growth in parks is moderating, still generates lots of profit.

It's been a rollercoaster. Their traditional theme park cash flow is being poured into their streamer and TV businesses. They need to reinvest in those parks, which are now expensive. Their films face competition from Netflix. 

How many times is Bob Iger going to come back to save this company? Issue is that they've tapped the well on a lot of their products, needs a creative refresh. Another Lion King? Come on. No one's going to movies. Not winning in streaming. 

Parks business is fabulous. If that were spun off, he'd want to own.

In the long run, you own this. You watch their movies, go to their theme parks and buy their t-shirts for your kids. Their cruises are fantastic. Disney+ has been up and down, but has a new CEO and have raised rates. The ad tier will benefit them. News about sports streaming is very interesting. Lots to like, but will be ups and downs short term.

Legacy company. Making money, diversified segments are mostly working. Board fighting. Stock price perpetually stuck in the mud. Theoretically a great company and brand, but not a great stock. Doesn't see any major catalyst. He's neutral. Doesn't see robust returns anytime soon.

A source says that activist Nelson Peltz is selling his Disney shares. He wouldn't but in fact would buy at these levels.

Nelson Peltz not getting enough credit for activism. Price around $100 is a good place to buy.