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TSE:CXR

Concordia International Corp (CXR.TO)

25.04
-0.39 (1.53%)
as of Dec 1, 2018, 8:09:31 am Market Open.
23 watching
0
BUY ON WEAKNESS

The whole healthcare sector is offering tremendous value because of all this overhang with Valeant (VRX-T) and others. Feels it is an attractive name. Definitely fast growth and will be volatile. He would Hold or Buy on pullbacks.

WAIT

The whole space around biotechs got caught up in the Valiant (VRX-T) story and more importantly is who will win the US election. Hillary has an aggressive stance against the biotech companies. You need to see how the dust settles before investing. He is okay trading it up to the recent resistance.

DON'T BUY

Last week there were rumours of Blankstone buying the whole company. CXR-T are looking at strategic alternatives. Sometimes there are things that are hard to get an edge on, so for the individual investor, it is a bit of a gamble. It is not trading on fundamentals.

COMMENT

Stock was halted today because of a potential takeover. Has never liked the stock. It is an over levered company. If the takeover does not turn out to be real, he feels it will drop back down to where it was. (BNN suggests you look at today’s interview that ran from 2:00-4:00.)

DON'T BUY

Doesn’t follow this closely and is not the type of a stock she would normally buy for a client’s portfolio. It was only founded in 2010 and is a growth by acquisition story. Has come down quite a bit with the whole issue surrounding healthcare pricing in the US and the growth by acquisition model. Made a big acquisition last September and had to raise equity which had to be funded by debt as well. Very leveraged and not the kind of name to put in an RESP account. Trading at a very low PE, which implies the market doesn’t necessarily believe in those earnings.

DON'T BUY

There is support around $30. It does appear to be bouncing off the $30 mark. He is seeing a consolidation pattern where the highs are getting lower, but not the lows. He would avoid this stock because it is too noisy.

DON'T BUY

A fascinating stock. The analysts are saying one thing and the market is saying another. His math says it will earn $3.17. We are very close to an EBV -1 sell signal. The stock cannot maintain its book value. The market is winning the battle. Be very careful with this one.

WAIT

Normally healthcare stocks do very well from mid-April through until the end of September. The chart looks like the stock is finally trying to find some support, and is developing a trading range. There are early indications that the stock is finally starting to show a bottom, but he needs more confirmation. He would like to see it break above its trading range. Be patient and wait until you get more confirmation from a technical point of view.

TOP PICK

There is a lot of controversy in the specialty Pharma sector. Thinks this is a very misunderstood story. Felt their last quarter was strong. The company can grow organically by high single digits driven by their UK acquisition of AMCo, which will have 16 new products launched over the next few years. Trading at 4X earnings. Dividend yield of 1.18%.

COMMENT

Has been very closely tied to the Valeant (VRX-T) situation, although it hasn’t come off as much. Also, it didn’t have quite the same issues. If there could be some resolution to the Valeant issue, you could see this one do very well. For the time being, there are more risks than potential returns.

DON'T BUY

Biotech tends to have a seasonal run from about June all the way through to September. It is bumping up against resistance at about the 50 day moving average of around $38.50. If the trend holds and it has been rolling over, there will be some selling pressures. This has a lot of the traders testing it, which may keep a bid under the stock. If you want to play this from a fundamental or technical perspective, you want to see it break some of those levels of resistance.

COMMENT

Getting painted with the same brush as Valeant (VRX-T). There is a discrepancy between these 2 companies to the positive whereby this company is certainly one of the cheapest names out there. Where it is trading now, and management’s ability to create cash flow to pay down debt, it is not going to be a short-term thing, but over time he feels they can get in a better financial position. Trading at 4X earnings, so it is very cheap.

BUY

It is a great entry location because the bottom from last October has held. If Hillary gets in this one might get caught up. But if you look at their revenue streams they should do okay, however.

TOP PICK

It is almost like you are getting the Valeant (VRX-T) valuation, without the mess. It is going at basically 3 to 4 times earnings, with an enterprise value at about 7 times. They have the big debt at about 5.5X debt to EBITDA, which is a risk, but the acquisition they did is doing better than expected. Thinks they will generate enough cash flow to be able to start paying down debt. Dividend yield of 1.16%.

COMMENT

Has been caught up in the Valeant (VRX-T) downdraft. However, it is starting to look very interesting from a value proposition. If the earnings can be believed, it is less than 4X earnings, but they have a lot of debt. While it looks cheap on a Price/Book basis, the debt worries him. It might be a short-term buy, but for the long-term you have to really worry about the debt.

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