Stockchase InsightsCenovus EnergyCVE.TOBUYDec 18, 2023

It is the cheapest large cap quality company in North America. They have been shooting the lights out with the highest quality assets in Canada. Also they have been able to exit non-performing refineries and at the same time increasing exposure to better ones while turning them around. Margins are up 200 to 300% year over year in the last quarter and he thinks this will persist. They are getting refinery exposure and best of breed highest quality oil sands assets. The time for the oil sands is now. They have one of the cheapest multiples of large cap stocks in North America. . Also they are paying down debt to very conservative levels and returning 75% of free cash flow to shareholders mostly in the form of share buybacks. He thinks that number will go to 100% next year. 
In summary it has an excellent balance sheet and management team as well as decades and decades of inventory. He sees 50 to 60% upside.
Buy 18  Hold 1  Sell1

Has downstream refining, but she's indifferent to its necessity in a company. Paid off debt from MEG acquisition faster than expected, now returning to 75% payout of FCF. Nothing wrong with it, especially in the current environment. But her favourite is CNQ.

Likes it a lot, one of the best in the business. Great run, more to go. You have to be a bit cautious because it's run so hard. Last quarter was great, continues to do really well. Nice balance of assets, including refining (which not every company has).

A lot of oil companies have fallen since the highs of March/April. He added a new, integrated name (CNQ) just this morning -- chart's more attractive, price bouncing off 200-day MA. CNQ is higher quality than CVE.

CVE is not quite there yet, as it's closing in on its 100-day MA.

All energy stocks have come off because we've had (cynically) a "peace scare" in the Middle East. Energy sector will continue to be robust.

Also likes, and owns, TOU.

Lightened up a bit after the runup. Price of oil will come down, but the bigger question is where will it level out? A hard one to gauge, but his sense is that it will take longer to get supplies out. (He's not a big believer in the pending agreement yet.)

In general oil isn't going back to where it was, and these stocks will be pretty good buys. One of the best oil-levered plays. MEG purchase was brilliant.

He trimmed a bit. Firing on all cylinders. Refinery margins have been astronomical compared to recent history. Still quite a bit of upside. Still undervalued, even if oil stays here or goes a bit lower.

Set-it-and-forget-it way to get exposure to bullish oil thesis. New floor for oil is $80, and higher in years to come. Downstream exposure (refineries), with margins at record highs. Top decile oilsands assets. Another record quarter. Really likes management. Yield is 2.09%.

Higher energy prices should trickle down to its bottom line. Cashflow should increase, should start to pay down debt. MEG is a great asset. Lots of respect for it.

Discount to peers, mostly because of the MEG acquisition. Now has high debt load, and that will take a bit of time to work through. Long term, MEG will add synergies and volumes. OK buying here, but know that focus probably on reducing debt rather than on buybacks/dividends.

Extremely well run. He wouldn't hesitate to have a position in it.

He owns SU instead.

The war will eventually end and oil will resume flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the WTI-Brent oil spread will widen. Cenovus has very long-life assets in the Tar Sands, but also benefit huge from the refinery crack spreads.

Higher risk profile. Has come a long way in how assets are managed. An opportunity today if you believe energy prices will remain strong for a prolonged time. Be a bit careful. Dollar-cost average carefully.

CNQ tends to be his go-to producer in the Canadian energy patch.

At maximum weight in his fund. Most obvious Canadian large-cap name to own right now. Security of supply is the most paramount issue right now. Thinks it's a $50 stock at $80 oil; his own in-house estimates model $79.

Benefits from best rock in Canada and massive expansions in US refining.

Over the long run, the MEG acquisition will work out OK if they can execute and merge the companies well. There's a bit of risk to that. Better company now than years ago.

He prefers CNQ as a better company and better run.