
TSE:CSU
This summary was created by AI, based on 86 opinions in the last 12 months.
Constellation Software Inc. (CSU) has faced significant challenges recently, particularly concerning the departure of its long-serving CEO, Mark Leonard, and increasing fears about AI's potential disruption of traditional software businesses. Many analysts believe the company's strong acquisition model and established market presence position it well for future growth, although concerns about its ability to sustain its roll-up strategy persist, especially in light of competitive pressures and market sentiment around software. The consensus from various experts suggests that while the current valuation is attractive, especially compared to historical levels, caution is advised given the potential for continued volatility and the need for the company to demonstrate sustained organic growth. Overall, despite the mixed sentiments regarding its immediate future, a substantial number of analysts remain bullish on CSU's long-term growth prospects, reflecting confidence in its business model and management team.
This has been a very interesting company over the years. It is one of the companies that has progressed on a rollup strategy through acquisitions. You have to give them credit for having made some very, very sharp purchases. Multiples are sort of dependent on that growth continuing. As a value investor, these are very difficult companies for him to Buy, because the multiple on the growth aspect is far ahead of the immediate fundamentals that underlie the earnings. Not one that he would purchase.
This buys other software companies, and are now at the scale where they are really well diversified. Feels management is top in class if not the best management team in Canada. Excellent allocators of capital. They are in a whole slew of verticals. Very disciplined in terms of their acquisition strategies. Have just gone through a period of consolidation, and look to be set to head to new highs. Dividend yield of 0.89%
The CEO is right up there with the top capital allocators ever. He’s done a remarkable job of growing the company, and using free cash flow for making more and more software acquisitions. They essentially own companies that have a lot of service and annuity revenue. The free cash flow comes back into that office, and they go out and buy more. Too expensive for him. Thinks the big run is over.
This has done extremely well. The 5-year chart shows a big range, and right now he is just neutral. The stock is not hanging around its highs. He suspects there will be some sellers coming in. It might have good support at around $380-$400, but then you have resistance from $500 and up with a very, very slight bearish bias.
Who do you like in Canadian Tech? As a value investor, he may like a Canadian Tech company, but may not be able to buy it because of its valuation. Two that stand out are Constellation Software (CSU-T) and CGI Group (GIB.A-T), and CGI is probably selling closer to reasonable multiples. Both are extremely well-managed. He also likes that they are both much more software dependent, not mixing any hardware which can be so fickle in today’s technology market.
A well-run company and the CEO has created an unbelievable free cash flow machine, buying up software companies and having annuity revenues, and using the free cash to continue to buy more, etc. They now have a suite of thousands of companies and are on the hunt to buy more. This is on his radar screen, but he just can’t stomach buying it at this valuation.
This is a serial acquirer in the software space and have done fantastically well with that business model. It has had a great 10 year run. He is generally very cynical about serial acquirers, so didn’t go into this. Doesn’t feel he can know this name as well as he would like to, because it is hard to see what the true organic growth is when they are making acquisitions. He wouldn’t look at this at these levels.
The challenge is that the stock just keeps going up and it is very difficult to find an entry point. It is now down about 15% since January, and is at an entry point that many have waited for. Their core business is niche acquisition strategy, so they are acquiring small software companies. The average acquisition size is about $3 million, and they are focusing on a space that the bigger players are not interested in.
They do a lot of healthcare/government payroll sorts of things. They make organizations work more efficiently through software. This company is a huge acquirer. The founder still works at the company and has $500 million worth of stock. They don’t issue stock, the cash flow is great, balance sheet is really, really strong, they deliver on expectations, but they trade only in Canada and their earnings are in US$. They have had 11 days in a row where their earnings have gone up. Dividend yield of 1.06%.