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David Baskin Cinram CRW.UN-T PAST TOP PICK Aug 23, 2007

(A Top Pick Aug 24/06. Down 19.8%.) Had ratty earnings last quarter but their peak quarter is the 4th when DVD sales tend to be at their highest. Yield is about 16%. Thinks the market was wrong on this one.

David Baskin

Owned

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$18.640

Stock price when the opinion was issued

misc industrial products

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COMMENT

Potentially interesting territory given the low price. The company is the last piece of the puzzle concerning production/screening of movies, the movement of movies into DVDs and DVD production and distribution. Given the extremely strong slate of recent

WEAK BUY

Need to be very aggressive investor to hold position right now. People are worried about new technology. Definitely a decline in volumes they’re shipping. They want to be known as a logistics company. A transformation story. Not worth risk unless aggressive.

HOLD

Long time holder. The market is telling us that the distribution is unsustainable. Be happier if stock was trade at $30 with 10% yield, would say people had more confidence. There’s a big 4th quarter coming. History of successful transitions.

DON'T BUY

The model price is $16.38, a negative 8% differential. In another couple of years, there will be a 30% tax on the distributions, so basically you are getting your own money back.

HOLD

DVD consumption is low. Distribution is not safe. History of the business, is that with each new technology (cassettes, cds, dvds) there is a good profit. This eventually dies down. It's at a hold now, because it's so cheap, someone will "just take it" or possibly take it private.

DON'T BUY

No reason to own this one.

DON'T BUY

Now trying to move into high definition DVDs. As always, there’s a transition point, which is painful for people who own the stock. The decline in DVD’s has not as yet been offset by a demand for high definition DVDs. Was also impacted by the stronger Cdn$.

SELL

(Market Call Minute.) Doesn't like the business.

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Probably a value play but he would still avoid it. Technology is changing and they have a lot of CapX to spend.

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David Baskin Cinram CRW.UN-T PAST TOP PICK Aug 23, 2007

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