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TSE:CPG
(Top Pick Nov 12/12, Up 12.39%) Dividend used to come from share dilution. As they implement water flood in more primary fields, you will see their funding from their drip program come down. They are at 118% payout before the drip and 103% afterwards. You could see that pre-drip payout come down closer to 100% over the next two to three years. There is still more room to run. 10% capital and 7% yield. Report on Thursday. Guided production higher than what people were expecting. Well results are getting better and better and better. Production growth is 5% after dilution of 3% per year from the drip program. He is going to buy more.
Have no concerns about them ever cutting the dividend back. Have a DRIP program that the shareholders apparently love. Just came out with fantastic earnings. They are going to beat their original exit volumes and the company just goes from strength to strength. This is Bakken oil, which is lighter. If it gets up to around $47, you should probably consider taking some profits.
6% sustainable dividend. The most recent guidance is the reason for the Top Pick. Second largest mid-cap producer in Canada soon. A great company, acquiring perspective landholdings, drilling sites and companies. Thinks they will still make acquisitions. Given the potential for the drilling sites they have and secondary recovery, this is a producer with a lot of leverage in it.
He is using a Pair Trade involving oil. He owns natural gas and is Shorting crude oil. Natural gas has a seasonal strength from late Sept until the 2nd week in December. Crude oil normally reaches the end of its period of seasonal strength at the end of Sept and that goes right down. This is the time when oil does not do well.
Frustrated a number of people over the last year or so, so stock is fairly range bound. Stopped their acquisitions, so now we can get a better sense of what actual organic numbers are. Raised production guidance twice this year, which is very positive. For income investors, this is a top quality company. Have some of the largest oil inventories in Canada. Top quality assets and good management. 7% dividend yield.
(A Top Pick September 19/12. Down 4.61%.) People are slow to appreciate their water flood upside. There are several billion barrels that are amenable to water flooding and thinks they will be booking barrels for the very 1st time this year. Spending about 120% of their cash flow to grow production by 6% and pays a 7% yield.
Combination of a 7% yield and pretty good production growth. Just reported Q3 and raised guidance for about the 3rd time in the last 4 months. Finally coming through on all those previous acquisitions. Thinks there will be cash flow growth of only about 5%-7%, but combining that with the yield it is undervalued. An attractive way to get yield without interest sensitivity.