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Opinions David Burrows
Canadian Pacific RailCP.TOCOMMENTSep 13, 2016
David BurrowsStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 19, 2026. Market Open.
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It just broke out, above $117 after being rangebound. Something's change. There's new interest in the stock
(Analysts’ price target is $132.99)
Keith Richards
All rails are suffering a recession, but is it over? Rails are cyclical to the Canadian economy. She feels were getting closer to a recession. She prefers CN to CP because of PE and dividend. CP's valuation reflects the Kansas City merger and its synergies, so higher. She owns no rails. She would buy CN on a dip.
Hit by tariff narrative, but tariffs didn't actually hit the fundamentals. Integrated nature of rails in NA means that tariffs are largely irrelevant. Could see some weakness during CUSMA negotiations, but long term it's been a mistake not to add on that weakness.
Darren SissonsThe KSU acquisition gives them an advantage with its entire North American footprint. Seeing signs that entire NA freight market is tightening. Industrial side of the economy seems to be doing well, much of it due to both fiscal and AI data centre spending in USA and Canada.
Should benefit from higher commodity prices. At inflection point of strong quarterly results. A long-term hold. Yield is 0.92%.
Bryden Teich
Good long-term business. Geographic footprint makes it a great railway. He's still actively buying.
Tim ReganIn the midst of ongoing trade discussions, near-shoring is where we're going. Only single line in NA that runs from Canada-US-Mexico -- this is a major win for efficiency. It also has east-west, which helps with Atlantic-Pacific trade.
If energy prices are going to remain elevated, rails are much more competitive than trucking. Sector broke out in January, this pullback is a great entry point. Big cash-generating business, in early stages of a structural change. Yield is 0.83%.
David BurrowsGood long-term buying opportunity right now. Tariff concerns last year, with some pressure abated from SCOTUS ruling. Consider diversifying between both CP and CNR.
Whatever comes out of CUSMA will be positive, because at least there will be an agreement. It's the unknown that creates volatility.
Network is unrivalled, especially with the KSU acquisition. Still in early stages of those cost synergies. Only network that spans Canada, US, and Mexico. Strong business, strong executional track record. Well positioned going forward. Yield is 0.80%.
(Analysts’ price target is $120.02)
Two words -- freight recession. It's been going on for over 3 years, and manufacturing has been the cause (Covid pulled demand forward, and then people spent $$ on trips and concerts). ISM Manufacturing PMI spiked unexpectedly last week. This gives the rails easy comparisons. Both should do well as manufacturing recovers.
CNR trades at a discounted PE of 17.5x. This is your name for value. Yield is 2.7% -- a meaningful premium to its 10-year average of 2%. Earnings growth of 8% expected. He'd probably choose this one on valuation, and on its intermodal business mix.
CP trades at parity with the group. Trades at 21x PE. Yield is just under 1%. Not cheap, but expected to grow faster (13% compound earnings growth over 3 years).
Owns neither, as trucking has way more cyclical leverage to a freight recovery.
Doesn't own CN. CP's long term is great, but depends on tariffs and CUSMA which you can't predict. You have to ride it out. Abandoning free trade is silly and stupid, but there will be a resolution.
Tim Regan
Canadian National (CNR-T) or Canadian Pacific (CP-T)? When the market started to weaken last spring, one of the things that led the market to the downside was Transports. Over the last few weeks, transports have been picking up relative to the market, which is encouraging for the market. This is an interesting time to take a look at the transports. He has a simple view. CN is North- South; US-Mexico. CP is more about East-West and more about commodities and more about global trade. He prefers to make the trade on the North American block. CN right now is about 15% of forest products, and the housing market in the US has been growing now at about 10%. He would prefer Canadian National at this point.