Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)

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140 watching

DON'T BUY

Have missed some production targets. Will be converting to a corp. making them taxable. If they want to continue with plans they have talked about, will probably have to cut distributions. Good quality long-term bet on the oil sands but doesn't expect it to go anywhere anytime soon.

TOP PICK

Sharp decline over the last 3 months. Disappointed in production and there is likely a distribution cut. Wait for the cut and use this as a long-term play on energy. Would expect a yield in the 4%-5% area.

TOP PICK

Stock has not acted well because of some major capital expenditures for expansion and will probably cut distributions next year. Most levered stock to oil prices in Canada. Has no exploration and is the biggest owner of Syncrude.

COMMENT

Much prefers Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T), which has some oil sand exposure but they operate and are good operators. Yield is not as good but there is way more production upside.

BUY

Has not performed as well as people expected. His favourite is CNQ. Long-term asset in a politically stable environment.

HOLD

Has dropped a lot and distribution cut is priced in. Operationally they haven't had too many good quarters lately and growth is lacking compared to other oil sands plays. Good yield.

BUY

Despite the recession and weaker demand, oil has held in quite well. Good to have yield with oil exposure.

BUY

Believes in the oil sands in general. Angst in the US will disappear after the November election. (See Top Picks.)

DON'T BUY

Had some production problems, which caused analysts to lower production rates for the year. CapX is going to be increasing over the next year or two, as they have to replace some older equipment. Currently paying distribution of $2 a share per unit and there is speculation they will have to cut this.

TOP PICK

Chinese bought 90% of Syncrude and they own 36.7%. 7.7% distribution. Good entry point.

COMMENT

Good strong yield of 7%-8%. Stock is trending lower.

DON'T BUY

Isn't that much growth but pays a decent dividend. Would rather own Suncor (SU-T) where you don't get quite the dividend but you know you have a growing production base. (See Top Picks.)

TOP PICK

Likes the sector. Sees this as a core position and buys on pullbacks. Distribution of 8% could be cut as they haven't earned it in the last quarter but is still worth owning, as the business itself is very solid.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

The .UN that people are fixated in is leaving at the end of 2010 but it doesn’t change the nature of the dividend. Comfortable with the cash flow stream. All large cap energy stocks are breaking down.

BUY

It is a long-term play. It’s going to take a long time to see real returns, especially where oil prices are. Over the next few years they will do well. Well managed. Significant tax pool so they should not have to reduce distribution as much as other companies would have to.

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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)